Researchers took several decades to understand the long-term effects of school closures during World War II and the Chinese Cultural Revolution, and its impact on individual learning and future earnings. It will take several years to decipher the precise effects of COVID-19 school closures of 2021. The poor understanding of its future impact on the economy and society is perhaps making us dangerously complacent.
On an average, every student affected by school closure in a developing Asian country stands to lose an estimated $180 every year, equivalent to a 2.4 percent drop in average annual earnings in future. The lost earnings are projected to reach$16,000 over a student’s lifetime. Globally, this generation of students is at risk of losing about$10 trillion in future life-time earnings — an amount equivalent to almost 10 percent of global GDP. These losses reflect only the private income of the individuals and do not capture the social returns or the long-term benefits of education on health, scientific progress, gender equity, harmony or peace.
E-bubble And Learning
The Indian elite who live in the e-bubble imagine that online classes have replaced schools just as Netflix has replaced the cinemas. First, only 42 percent of all mobile phone owners in India have smartphones. Second, sparing the device used by the parent for the child’s online classes isn’t easy. Additional purchase of a device is impossible thanks to the lockdown-induced financial crisis. It is estimated that in India, 23.8 million additional children and youth may drop out of classes this year due to the pandemic's economic impact alone.
To make things worse, we have ‘digital drop-out’, which is mostly undetected with a switched off camera, muted mic, and a blank mind.
Studies conducted in Europe show that children make slower progress in distance learning during lockdowns than when they were in regular schools and that class differences are getting heightened within the OECD countries. What should alarm us more are studies indicating that online learners in developing countries and disadvantaged groups score worse. Ever since the pandemic hit us, 86 percent of children at the primary level have been out of school in poorer countries, compared to just 20 percent in the developed countries. This suggests a dangerous scenario, where the demographic dividend that countries such as India hope to reap through education, just won’t materialise.
Neglecting Education
Shops, businesses, hotels, restaurants, liquor outlets and cinemas are being reopened under pressure to resume some economic activity, as millions depend on daily wages to pay for food and rent. Businesses are re-engineering themselves and apps have been rolled out with priority even for distributing liquor as we don’t expect the pandemic to retreat completely any sooner.
However, when it comes to education, only 45 percent of countries have moved towards a hybrid model that scientifically attempts to re-engineer pedagogy or combat learning loss and provide additional support. The maximum that most Indian schools seem to have done is to ineptly stream classroom sessions. The teacher speaking through a live video was an unplanned knee-jerk response, and sadly we don’t seem to have progressed any further even after one year of the pandemic.
The restlessness of young kids coupled with the distractions at home that do not allow the children to focus on studying, makes the whole exercise a farce for many. Some say that the government school teachers are only too happy to get salaries with lesser work, whereas many private schools have gone bust with parents unwilling or unable to pay fees.
Hybrid Approach
Reducing our obsession with live-streaming of classes is important as it is heavily dependent on a stable Internet connection. We could utilise cheaper and more accessible media like the radio or the TV, identify and utilise readily available videos on YouTube, encourage content creation in local language, distribute cheaper digital devices and, most importantly, train the teachers to adapt to the new teaching methods.
We also need to accept the reality that not all teachers are good online instructors. Child psychologists and educators could design dynamic modules that incorporate ‘gamification principles’ instead of the one-way classroom sessions. A trick or two can be learnt from the private educational apps, but even if we do all the above perfectly, one cannot wish away the importance of actual classroom sessions. Mixing of online and offline sessions will be crucial for the children to substantially regain the lost learning.
Go To Your Classes!
Globally, only 43 percent of countries that have the vaccine are vaccinating teachers or school staff with priority. India has to prioritise teachers’ vaccination and open the schools in a phased manner. It is not necessary that classes are conducted daily or in full capacity.
Strategies to be adopted include grouping students in ‘protective bubbles’ that stay together throughout the school day, staggering lunch and break times in and outside the classroom so that bubbles do not mix. Behaviour changes involving mask-wearing, hand-washing and using sanitisers will also require a lot of effort.
To make even the bare minimum of the above possible, the schools have to gear up in a big way with enhanced budgetary allocation from the governments. But the disturbing fact is that two-thirds of the developing countries have actually cut their public education budgets since the onset of the pandemic. Are our schools doing anything to enlarge their classroom sizes or redesign their infrastructure to suit the new normal of social distancing?
I think we are already very late to school, let’s not miss the bus altogether.
Prasanth Nair is an IAS officer and a former advocate. Twitter: @PrasanthIAS. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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