OPINION | Vijay’s Political Gamble: After Karur, what’s next for TVK and TN politics?

The player with the most powerful cards is, unexpectedly, the Congress party. Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), is aching to align with the Congress, which would provide not just ideological and moral boosters, but also a semblance of a ground-level organisation (weak, but not non-existent, in Tamil Nadu). But for the Congress to jump out of the cosy bosom of the DMK and embrace a political novice, it would want more than an increased number of seats. It would want the ADMK to come into the alliance.

The ADMK would love it as well and would dump the BJP in less than a heartbeat. Post Annamalai’s ouster as party chief, the BJP has reverted to being an uninspiring marginal player in the elections.

A Congress-TVK-ADMK alliance would be a win-win-win, which, if it fructifies, will be favourites to sweep the state. To effect it would take all the brainpower of ADMK chief Edappadi Palanisamy (EPS).

But, even if there is give-and-take on seat-sharing, a major stumbling block will be the post of Chief Minister. EPS will not relinquish his claim to it. Even if EPS tries to convince Vijay to be more of a Pawan Kalyan than an NTR, Vijay may not let it go. Being a fresh candidate, Vijay will feel this is his best chance, and his is the only rising party among two old dinosaurs that have been on the decline in Tamil Nadu.

But can TVK + Congress alone happen? Congress has the comfort of a tried-and-tested alliance with the DMK. But it also feels that it has been short-changed by the DMK by not being given ministerial posts. (VCK feels the same and will follow wherever Congress goes.) An entrepreneurial Congress can dump the DMK for now, take a risk in the Assembly elections aligning with the TVK, and can still expect the DMK to return during parliamentary elections if things go awry. But Congress never goes by hard logic, but by what the first family thinks. The nepo-alliance of the DMK and Congress’ first families is still strong, with leaders often referring to each other as brothers.

The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) of Seeman, by standing alone, will lose a lot if the ADMK-Cong-TVK alliance happens, as it will strengthen the ADMK and Congress, whose votes NTK has been gnawing into.

In this whole state of play, the vanguards of ideology — BJP (Hindutva), DMK (Dravidianism), and NTK (Tamil Nationalism) — are jittery, while the ideologically flexible forces — Congress, TVK, and ADMK — are faced with exciting possibilities. The source of strength in one election can be a weakness in another. Democracy is not for novices!

What should Vijay do?

There is a saying in Tamil which translates to: only when there is a wall can someone paint on it. Vijay has to build his party while also trying to leverage its strengths — like fixing an airplane in flight.

Campaign: The mode of campaigning suits Vijay the best — weekend shows of strength — will not be taken up again. This low-cost strategy leaned heavily on the state government and police to provide the necessary supporting arrangements and infrastructure. This is a big blow for Vijay. How he innovates now will be interesting to watch. Will he continue to hold large meetings in maidans outside the cities will be something to watch out for.

Organisation: The limitations of having a very thin organisation, relying only on his fan base for local organisation, have now been called out. He has to rope in leaders with real salt-of-the-earth political experience - people who have faced versions of problems like Karur. He should bring in those who have worked with political parties, retired police officers, and disgruntled politicians from other parties, especially at the district level. Political consultants lack operational expertise.

Leadership: Vijay was visibly distressed in Karur. He did not even meet the press at the airport, which has turned out to be a political blunder. He must learn from the experience and toughen himself as a leader. He should summon all the grit and leadership qualities he had imbibed while rising to become a superstar in a very cut-throat industry. He should cultivate the habit of talking to the media frequently and develop the muscle, like many film-star-turned politicians from yesteryears.

Who can he emulate?

He cannot emulate MGR, who had two decades of experience before he became Chief Minister. (Analysts fail to acknowledge that in this age of mobile communications, ideas reach the last man in minutes, not decades.). Nor can he operate like Jayalalitha who controlled campaigns from her Poes Garden residence. Both were backed by the deep-rooted organisation of the ADMK.

What about the other successful political startup, the Aam Aadmi Party? Arvind Kejriwal and Co. did not have the flashiness of Vijay, but all of their top leaders were grassroots organisers who had accumulated years of experience working with the people and the media.

The NTR phenomenon in Andhra Pradesh is perhaps his closest parallel. His advisors should perhaps study NTR’s rise to power in detail.

Summing Up

TVK is a political startup. But before it goes from 0 to 1, it is being asked to go from 1 to 100. To build an organisation and win the elections in the next six months is a tall ask. But the Gen Z craze can defy the grammar of politics. It should be appreciated that, unlike in Nepal or Bangladesh, the Gen Z in Tamil Nadu seeks to quench its aspirations through democratic means instead of rioting.

Vijay has to act fast. Other political parties are harvesting the ill will that is accruing towards the DMK. Shrewd EPS, Seeman, and even BJP leaders have become vociferous against the government, while TVK is noticed by its absence. In a rough parallel, in the 2023 Andhra Pradesh elections, the BJP under Bandi Sanjay deepened the anti-incumbency against the BRS, while it was the Congress that reaped the rewards later by winning the elections. Again, democracy is not for novices!

Till then, Vijay’s army can take solace from another quote of the great Ursula Le Guin: “If you evade suffering you also evade the chance of joy. Pleasure you may get, or pleasures, but you will not be fulfilled. You will not know what it is to come home.”

(Banuchandar Nagarajan was an aide to Arun Jaitley during the 2014 Lok Sabha campaign.)

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this organisation.