One thing is getting certain as the fourth phase of the seven-phase Uttar Pradesh assembly elections gets over on February 23. The main contenders are finding the battle more tightly-contested than they thought initially, and nothing can be taken for granted.
By the end of the fourth phase, it is not just the fate of candidates in 231 of the total 403 seats that stood decided, but also where the main contenders stand in terms of striking distance of the seat of power in Lucknow.
Both sides claim victory, though there is disquiet among the rank and file of the political parties. Never mind the aggressiveness that has overtaken their leaders.
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s bid for a second term should not have been so difficult because of the work done on the ground, including developing infrastructure, improving law and order, and implementing many schemes to provide homes, piped water, and electricity.
But the distress among the voters over livelihood issues, particularly among the unemployed and farmers, is a cause for concern among candidates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The rival Samajwadi Party (SP)’s rank and file also know that it is not an easy affair for registering a win in more than 200-plus seats, preventing the BJP from forming the next government.
Of course, the best hope for the BJP is the fourth and fifth phase comprising mainly the Awadh region. The BJP believes a majority of the central UP districts are its strongholds, where the SP faced a crushing defeat in 2017.
After the February 23 voting, the battle will move largely to the eastern UP region. The sixth and seventh phases, the BJP leaders say, are also tightly-contested. The SP is hoping to attract non-Yadav OBCs in eastern UP because of Akhilesh Yadav's alliance with OBC leaders Om Prakash Rajbhar and Swami Prasad Maurya, who were until recently with the BJP. Now they could ensure considerable caste dividends to the SP.
Also, the constituencies that go to polls in the last two phases have sizeable Dalit voters, which means a strong challenge from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), both to the BJP as well as the SP.
Even Union Home Minister Amit Shah acknowledged in a recent interview that a good section of Dalits and Muslims may still stick with the BSP. Whether some non-Jatav Dalits in eastern UP would prefer the SP-led alliance than the BJP is an open question.
Internal assessments by the BJP have indicated that the third phase, in which 59 assembly constituencies in 16 districts went to polls on February 20, was a big test for the BJP. In 2017, the BJP had won 49 of these seats, while the SP got merely nine though the belt is considered a stronghold of the Yadavs with the backing of Muslims.
The February 23 phase covers Awadh and central UP region, along with two districts of the Terai region and one district of the Bundelkhand region. The BJP does face an acid test at Lakhimpur Kheri that gained notoriety during the farmers’ agitation after the infamous October 3 incident in which eight people, including four farmers, were killed. Four farmers were mowed down by an SUV owned by union minister Ajay Mishra Teni's son Ashish Mishra, who recently got bail from Allahabad High Court.
Also, the issue of stray cattle has bothered a large number of farmers in many districts. As the state government banned illegal abattoirs in 2017 and imposed strict vigil on cow slaughter, the stray bulls started destroying crops. Yadav called for giving compensation to the farmers who lost their lives after being hit by bulls while protecting their fields. This forced Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pledge a new "arrangement" to deal with stray cattle after the new government comes to power on March 10.
In the hope of balancing out these local issues, the BJP has tried to put the SP and Congress in a corner on the charge that they are ‘sympathetic’ to terror groups, after the recent verdict in the 2008 Ahmedabad blasts case. The BJP even released details of terror cases closed by the SP government previously relating to blasts in Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi, and Gorakhpur.
For most parts, the Congress campaign has not matched its potential though Rae Bareli goes to the polls on February 23. Rae Bareli is the parliamentary constituency of Congress President Sonia Gandhi. The party will face major embarrassment if it fails to win seats here. Gandhi addressed a virtual rally for Rae Bareli voters recently. Her daughter and party leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra camped there for two days. Of the five assembly seats in the district, the Congress could win none in 2012 but won two seats in 2017. Aditi Singh, the Congress winner in the Rae Bareli assembly seat in 2017, is now contesting the same seat as a BJP candidate. Rahul Gandhi had lost the family pocket borough Amethi to Union minister Smriti Irani in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. He intends to campaign in UP for the first time only after the fourth phase of voting, probably from February 25.
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