On November 14, the Congress announced that it will contest all the 403 seats in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. This decision was made after its attempt to forge alliances with regional parties didn’t materialise.
Neither Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati, nor Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, nor Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Jayant Chaudhary was keen on allying with the grand old party. The Congress is considered as a weak link in the Hindi heartland. Its inability to transfer votes to its alliance partners is the key reason it being ignored in UP.
Currently, the party doesn’t even have a single anchor voting segment left with it. It doesn’t find favour with any caste or socio-economic group, or voters by occupation. It is reduced to a marginal player. The few seats the Congress wins in UP are largely due to the charisma of its local candidates.
Despite the onset of OBC politics in the 1990s, the party’s state leadership was largely dominated by Brahmins such as Pramod Tiwari, Rita Bhauguna Joshi, Jitendra Prasada, Jitin Prasada, etc. This strategy distanced smaller backward castes from aligning with the Congress.
To rectify this mistake, in 2019 the party appointed two-time MLA and OBC leader Ajay Kumar Lallu as State President. To give credit, Lallu toiled hard, and made the Congress visible in the state. However, he is not among the tallest OBC leaders of UP, unlike Akhilesh Yadav or Keshav Prasad Maurya of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the Yadav voters are mostly aligned to the SP, the non-Yadav voters are with the BJP.
With Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra taking centre stage, the party has witnessed high-profile exits like Jitin Prasada and Lalitesh Tripathi.
These exits over the years has weakened the party’s organisational structure in UP. Many workers have shifted allegiance, many loyalists have been lying low due to apathy of local leadership, and the lack of resources, among others.
Currently, the Congress is at a distant fourth place among political parties in UP. The grand old party has pinned its hopes at the third slot with the fortunes of the BSP dwindling, and the party facing an existential crisis in these polls. Mayawati has lost her political edge, successive electoral losses since 2012 and the lack of a credible successor have weakened the BSP.
The Congress enjoys 5-15 percent support among Muslims, Upper Caste, and Dalits. One-third of its vote share comprises support from minorities. However, the party lacks strong leaders from these communities, and doesn’t have a state-wide popular leader, which impacts its ability to make further inroads.
Representing the Congress, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has been at the forefront condemning the October 3 violence at Lakhimpur Kheri, in which four farmers and a journalist were killed. The announcement of sops for women, and her rallies are creating a buzz, and the party is gaining some traction. Early opinion polls show that the Congress’ efforts are paying off.
However, any massive turnaround in fortunes will take some time. Sustained efforts are required for revival, and it will take time and effort to make a substantial difference in the existing political equations. One of the many factors that does not work in its favour is that the Congress does not have strong candidates for all the 403 seats.
The Congress, which has been snubbed by the regional parties, wants to show that it can win on its own. The Congress could mean dead weight for the SP and the BSP, but in the 2019 general elections where the duo excluded the Congress from their alliance, they couldn’t make a significant dent in the BJP’s fortunes.
As Muslim voters represent almost one-third of its support base, the Congress may spoil the party for the SP in minority-influenced seats by splitting the opposition votes. This is why the SP looks worried, and has alleged that the Congress is hand in glove with the BJP.
The road to New Delhi passes through UP, and the Congress could be hoping that it could at least repeat in the 2024 general elections its 2009 performance when it bagged 21 Lok Sabha seats. It is preparing the ground for the same.
If the Congress can maintain this momentum till early next year when the assembly polls are expected to be held, it would reflect in the results as well. However, to sustain those gains and make deeper inroads, there are a lot of limitations which need to be addressed.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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