The first phase of the all-important Uttar Pradesh polls concluded on February 10, and the second was on February 14. The seven-phase election culminates on March 7 with the keenly-awaited results on March 10. The economic crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the hotly-debated topics on the ground, and in newsroom studios.
The claims and counterclaims by UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party chief and former UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav on this topic with a lot of data thrown by both sides muddles the picture. Does economic performance impact electoral results? Or it is just one of the factors people take into account while voting together with leadership, ideology, caste and religion, law and order, development, etc.
Price rise, unemployment, and farm distress were top issues even in 2019 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a big mandate. In 2004, when the BJP under AB Vajpayee lost, the Indian economy was doing well — at least that was the perception, remember ‘India Shining’? Prior to that, Congress leader and then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, who ushered in the liberalisation era, lost the general elections in 1996.
Generally, per capita income is considered to be a good barometer of economic performance. In 2017, among the five states now going to the polls, four (UP, Manipur, Punjab, and Goa) recorded lower growth in per capita income versus national average (2013-17). Uttarakhand, the fifth state, did better than all of India — and yet the incumbent government was not re-elected.
Let’s look at these three tenures: of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader and former Chief Minister Mayawati (FY07-12), of Yadav (FY12-17), and of Adityanath (FY17-22) in UP.
Adityanath claims that UP is now number two in GDP in India. UP was at this position for most of Mayawati’s tenure. Per capita income grew handsomely, more than doubling during her rule from Rs 14,212 in FY06-07 to Rs 32,002 in FY11-12. The poverty rate declined from 40.9 percent to 29.4 percent — still the BSP lost the 2012 assembly elections.
During Yadav’s tenure, per capita income grew to Rs 52,774 in FY16-17, though at a slower pace than under Mayawati’s tenure. He also focussed a lot on infrastructure projects. Unemployment was high, ranked third in India. The government’s performance was impacted by droughts in FY14 and FY15, demonetisation in FY17. Yadav suffered a major setback in the 2017 polls.
The Adityanath dispensation claims per capita income has doubled, however, it is still lower than the national average. As per CMIE data, UP’s unemployment rate of 3 percent (January) is lower than the national average of 6.57 percent. The GDP growth rates have also been affected by the pandemic.
Two exceptional years of the pandemic make data not strictly comparable. While economic issues such as farm distress, unemployment, and price rise dominate the discourse, voting is an emotive issue based on apeksha (expectation) and aakrosh (anger).
Most voters do not understand data and jargon. What they do understand and feel the pinch is inflation, unemployment, and income levels. It is no secret that income levels have fallen, and the poor have been hurt. However, the government has also taken sincere efforts to provide relief to the poor.
One of the most impactful, and not much-publicised schemes is free ration distribution. This has provided some relief/cushion to the poor. Higher NREGA allocations, and Rs 500 transfers for three months to Jan Dhan accounts are also being talked about on the ground.
In the same breath, people also talk about high cooking oil and LPG prices. There is a job crisis in UP, whose young demography is bigger than the population of many countries. The government has not been able to deliver the jobs promised in the BJP’s 2017 manifesto.
The pandemic has increased the dependence of the poor on the government. Here the last-mile delivery of schemes is very important, and direct benefit transfer (DBT) has ensured that intermediaries are eliminated. The economic performance of the state impacts the lives of millions. However, voters may not punish, or be forgiving if they see the sincerity of the government in solving economic issues.
Does Adityanath provide this comfort level to the voters of UP who have faced the brunt of the pandemic? Or will they usher in change?
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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