The high-pitch Uttar Pradesh assembly elections enters the decisive fifth of the seven phases as 61 seats go to the polls on February 27. The seats, such as Ayodhya, in this phase have a high emotional connect with the majority of the electorate, especially with religion being a focal point during the electoral campaign.
These 61 seats are spread among the 11 districts (of the total 75) of Amethi, Sultanpur, Chitrakoot, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Barabanki, Ayodhya, Bahraich, Shrawasti, and Gonda. The average turnout in these seats in the 2017 assembly polls was lower than the state average by around 3 percent. The average victory margin mirrored the state average at 13.7 percent.
Numbers Speak
With this phase, 72 percent of the 403 assembly seats will have gone to the polls. In 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 50 of these 61 seats.
This region is a traditional stronghold of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). In the 2012 assembly polls, the SP won 41 seats (including Ayodhya), while the BSP recorded a 31 percent vote share in 2007.
The SP and the BSP derive their strength from the demographic composition of these seats. The Dalits account for 23 percent, while the Muslims are 18 percent, and the Yadavs 11 percent (collectively referred to as MY as it was a strong voter base for the SP).
Till 2012, the non-Yadav OBC (NYOBC) vote (30 percent) used to be divided among the three main parties. The consolidation of the anchor voting segments, the Dalits and the MY respectively, along with top up of the NYOBC helped the BSP and the SP win majority of their seats in 2007, and 2012.
The innovative social engineering which enabled the BJP to get 62 percent NYOBC support changed the game in this region. Along with non-Jatavs and Brahmins/Rajputs who are also in fair numbers in these seats, the addition of the NYOBC has lately made the BJP a formidable force in these seats.
Hindu Credentials
There is some disappointment among voters as Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was reported to contest from Ayodhya, but the BJP didn’t go with this strategy, probably to de-polarise the environment. The BJP hopes to retain the support of subaltern Hindu castes under the bigger Hindutav umbrella seeking to negate the local-level anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs. and caste divides.
SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, on the other hand, is also not shying away from showing his Hindu credentials, much like Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. However, the SP is confident of not rubbing the minority community the wrong way for dearth of options.
After the first and second phases, it is the fifth phase where the SP gets its momentum back, as its core vote block is concentrated in these 11 districts. The region also includes some districts of the east and northeast UP where the SP has formed formidable alliances with caste-based parties.
Caste-wise Focus
Both the BJP and the SP are eyeing the Dalit vote bank here to increase their chances. The SP is lagging by around 18 percent vote share, and it is here where it’s Samajwadi plus Ambedkarwadi strategy needs to work in its favour.
Meanwhile, the BJP highlighting that the BSP is fighting a good election and will not lose relevance, could confuse the Dalit voters who might have been thinking of switching sides in favour of the SP.
BSP leader Mayawati is fighting an existential battle, and is fighting hard to maintain the hold over her core Jatav vote bank. Non-Jatavs have been moving towards the BJP in hope for higher representation. If Jatavs also move away from the BSP, then the party would lose relevance in UP, the only state where it has a meaningful presence.
The Brahmin represent about 13 percent in these seats. Both the BSP and the SP are trying to woo the community by holding meetings to exploit their reported disillusionment against Adityanath’s ‘thakurvaad’. The SP has fielded 11 Brahmin candidates, while the BSP has 18. The BJP has given ticket to 15 Brahmins, while the Congress has 18. In the 2017 polls, 11 Brahmins won from these 61 seats.
Both the SP and the BSP are not overtly trying to be projected as parties which champion the cause of minorities in this phase. While the BJP is highlighting the SP’s alleged involvement in the killing of kar sevaks, the SP is promising to construct the temple in Ayodhya in a faster/better manner.
We will have to wait till March 10 to see if these tactics used by political parties work in their favour or not.
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