Trump, Iran and the ‘Gaza ceasefire deal’

The Deal

The ceasefire deal includes three stages. The first stage, which lasts for 42 days, includes a ceasefire, withdrawal, and redeployment of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) outside densely populated areas, the release of hostages and exchange of prisoners, and the return of internally displaced persons to their places of residence in the Gaza strip.

Hamas would release 33 hostages in the first phase of the deal, including women, children, men over the age of 50, and men under the age of 50 who are wounded and sick. This spans the entire 42 days of phase 1, starting with the release of three hostages on day 1. For every hostage released, Israel would release 30 Palestinian prisoners from jail.

During the critical first phase, the IDF would gradually withdraw from Gaza towards a buffer zone in the East, near the border with Israel. In addition, the IDF will vacate the Netzarim corridor, which is a kilometer-deep line running across the Gaza Strip, dividing North and South Gaza. The IDF will also gradually withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt. Incidentally, these two withdrawals were the main sticking points in past negotiations.

Talks on conditions and implementation of the second phase are to commence on the 16th day of the first phase. Phase 2 will end on Day 84 with the complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Gaza Strip and a permanent ceasefire. It will also include the release of all the living and dead hostages still held by Hamas.

The third phase is all about reconstruction and rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, in which the Arab countries will be major stakeholders. There is also a talk of an international monitoring force to be deployed to prevent any future agreement violations, but those details are still in the discussion stage.

The first stage, however, is most critical as it would not only lead to the silencing of the guns and airstrikes for the first time in 15 months but will also set the stage for the future peace process. Apart from the ceasefire, compelling and urgent humanitarian aid delivery aspects are also critical. Accordingly, the first phase also includes intensifying the safe and effective entry and distribution of humanitarian aid on a large scale throughout the Gaza Strip, rehabilitating hospitals, and health centers, bringing in civil defense supplies and fuel etc. As per the deal, 600 trucks carrying critical supplies would be permitted daily in Gaza.

Given the atmosphere of hostility and mistrust between Hamas and Israel, the deal has proposed that Qatar, Egypt and the US will act as guarantors of the agreement to ensure that all three of its stages are fully implemented by both parties.

Why Now?

All sides have welcomed the deal. However, the question is, how was the deal clinched and why now? Remember, the deal that has been agreed upon is the mirror image of the ‘Biden Plan’, presented in May 2024 which had the same three phases of 42 days each and similar conditions. The UN Security Council too endorsed it on 10th June 2024, and Hamas publicly accepted it. Israel initially concurred but the very next day, it put out a statement that Israel would not agree to a ceasefire unless Hamas’s military and governing capabilities were totally destroyed, all hostages were freed, and Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.

So, why now?

There is a lot in the media that says that Donald Trump is the main factor that changed or instead forced Israel to change its mind. The visit of Trump's newly appointed Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff to Israel and his meeting with PM Netanyahu on 10th January, where he is supposed to have delivered a ‘stern message’, seems to have tipped the scales in favor of the deal. It also connects with an earlier warning that Trump issued during a press interaction on 7th January, when he said, "If those hostages aren't back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East. And it will not be good for Hamas. And it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out."

Given Trump’s history as the most ardent and staunch supporter of Israel, this pressure tactics may come as a surprise. In his first term, Trump had done for Israel, which no other US president had dared. He had recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017 and had moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. He had orchestrated the signing of the Abraham Accords, too, in September 2020, which set the road map for normalization of Israel’s relations with the Arab world. And he unilaterally revoked the Iran Nuclear deal in May 2018, much to the delight of Israel, further adding his ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran, throttling its funds and economy like never before.

So why did he pressurize Israel now? The answer is twofold.

The Iran Angle

For Trump, resolving the Gaza conflict aligns with his broader strategic goals, including countering Iran and fostering normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Trump has also made it clear that he does not endorse wars.

Secondly, Trump would have conveyed to PM Netanyahu that there is a more significant battle to be fought and won than the war in Gaza. This war is with Iran, the common enemy for both Israel and the US. After 15 months of fighting, there is not much left to achieve in Gaza. Also, most of the threat to Israel on its borders has already been eliminated, with Hezbollah demolished in the North and West Bank well under the control of IDF. To add to Israel’s comfort, the ouster of the Assad regime in Syria has broken the vital link between Iran and its proxies in the region, delivering a fatal blow to Iran’s strategy in the region.

All this would have been discussed along with the possibilities and framework of how Israel and the US want to tackle the remaining threat from Iran later, especially the nuclear issue in Trump’s forthcoming term. Also, the possible normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia and others in the region could possibly happen only once the Gaza war has ended. Israel agreeing to the deal would give Trump the perfect start to his presidency, and Israel would get repaid later.

From an Israeli perspective, most of the military goals in the Gaza war had been achieved.  Also, fighting over 15 months, mostly with reservists, had led to injuries and casualties as well as war fatigue. The Israeli economy too had been set back considerably over this period. Plus, getting back the hostages would be a win for PM Netanyahu any day. Thus, this would have been a good time to get the deal done even at the cost of looking compromised and pressurized.

Conclusion

The Gaza ceasefire agreement marks a crucial milestone in a deeply entrenched conflict. Driven by geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian imperatives, the deal’s timing reflects a confluence of factors, including US diplomatic pressure and shifts in regional dynamics. The period up to 19th January is critical to ensure that nothing derails it even before it commences. While Trump is set to commence his presidency with a win under his belt, it could be a difficult time for PM Netanyahu, given the huge opposition to the deal from his right-wing ministers like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.  Meanwhile, in Gaza, this deal comes as a massive relief to the people facing death and destruction every day, for families displaced from their homes and for international humanitarian aid to flow in finally.

(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and a West Asia Expert. During his service, he has been a Director in Military intelligence and Director in the Ministry of Externa Affairs. His X Handle is @rajeev1421.)

 Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.