United States President Donald Trump has become the first US President to make a stand-alone visit to India. The 36-hour whirlwind visit is proving to be an unmatched diplomatic pageantry as well.
It is certainly a marker in the coming of age of the bilateral relationship, a process that had begun with the visit of President Bill Clinton to India in March 2000. Two decades on, the US is India's biggest trading partner, a trusted defence supplier and a well-meaning companion instrumental in ending India’s nuclear isolation.
More importantly, it has become an ally that doesn't create unnecessary political discomfiture for India by poking its nose into issues, such as Kashmir, beyond a point, as New Delhi has learnt to live with, as well as leverage, the US’ penchant for transactional diplomacy. As the Indian defence and energy purchases from the US go up, the bilateral ties have stayed on course to duck the hesitations of the past to strike a realistic and pragmatic road map for the future.
That said, the way US policies are unfolding in the region in an American election year, India will see itself in a spot of considerable discomfort. There are two areas of US engagement in the South Asia region that would have New Delhi concerned. First, is Washington’s peace deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and; second, US’ policies towards Iran.
Days after Trump's India visit, the US and the Taliban are set to sign a deal aimed at ending 19 years of war in Afghanistan, which will help Trump fulfil his 2016 election promise — to bring back US troops from Afghanistan. At present some 12,000 US troops are stationed in Afghanistan. Barring a last minute botch-up, the longest war the US has ever fought, where 2,448 Americans lost their lives in combat since 2001, is set to end.
Considering whatever happens in Afghanistan has national security implications for India, New Delhi would have liked the US troops to continue with its presence in Afghanistan and carry on with two missions: helping Afghan forces fight the Taliban, and conducting counter-terrorism operations against other outfits. There isn’t enough evidence to suggest that both these missions have accomplished their objectives.
Any US deal in Afghanistan that is not an outcome involving the government in Kabul under its constitution is a matter of concern for New Delhi. On February 23, Trump told reporters at the White House before leaving for India, “….But people want to make a deal, and I think the Taliban wants to make a deal too, they are tired of fighting.”
The proposed Taliban deal looks like a rush job — a deal which would give Pakistan the upper hand in the region.
Talking about the deal with the Taliban and Islamabad's role in it, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi recently said: "[Mike] Pompeo (US Secretary of State) told me that the pathway to fixing relations between Pakistan and US came through Kabul. Now I would like to remind him that we have fulfilled all our promises."
A deal with the Taliban would change the contours of Pakistan-US ties and Islamabad would like to extract its share for being a valuable partner in bringing the Taliban to the talking table.
Adding to this, on February 21, the Taliban released a statement stating that it was aiming for the full withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. There is no evidence to suggest that such a deal would be advisable. It is still not clear if the Taliban groups now at the negotiating table have absolute control over all insurgent groups, and whether the Taliban recognises the Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul. Moreover, it is yet not clear whether the rivalry between Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah will undermine the validity of the talks.
Adding to India’s woes, most western powers see the Islamic State (or ISIS) as the bigger threat than the Taliban to their national security interests. Going by its past experiences of being the target of a host of terror attacks in the Afghanistan-Pakistan or Af-Pak region, India can ill afford such an approach.
Given these considerations, it would require deft handling of the situation to ensure that the Taliban deal is not detrimental to India's genuine security interests.
The just-held parliament elections in Iran show the resurgence of the conservatives. This could be another trigger to ignite anti-American sentiments in the country that will be holding presidential polls in 2021.
With the US making no real effort to have a climb down with Iran over the nuclear question, the situation doesn’t augur well for India’s interests. The US-Iran tensions have already brought troubles to the Chabahar Port project, which is India's gateway to Central Asia via Afghanistan and a counter to China’s maritime trade designs in the region—and an effective counter to the Gwadar Port in Pakistan.
Any further instability in the region, which is home to millions and a vital source of energy supply, is not something India can wish for.
It is a fact that India-US ties have come a long way and they can stand on its own. However, US policies in the region calls for greater strategic understanding on the part of Washington towards India's needs. That would, perhaps, be the crucial fidelity test for what US President Donald Trump said at the Namaste Trump event on February 24; that ”The US will be a faithful and loyal friend” (of India).
Jayanth Jacob is a foreign policy commentator who is covering the ministry of external affairs for more than a decade. Twitter: @jayanthjacob. Views are personal.
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