With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States, India-US defence ties will witness continuity and not a break from the past. Under Trump 2.0, the bilateral defence relationship will continue apace with continued push for arms sales by Washington.
Under the first Trump Administration there were key reversals in military sales from the Obama Administration, which applied restrictions on military hardware such as the MQ-9 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). These are now being purchased by the all the three wings of Indian armed forces. If the previous experience under the first Trump Administration is any guide, Trump 2.0 will push for greater level of military and defence cooperation and not pursue a purely transactional approach to defence trade with India. Under the first Trump term there were key purchases made by India such as 72,400 Sig Sauer Assault Rifles, AH-64E Apache Attack helicopters and MH-60 Romeo Seahawk helicopters.
China angle
Trump’s focus on Washington’s strategic competition with Beijing will continue to drive his approach on defence cooperation with New Delhi, thereby ensuring its centrality in the shaping the trajectory of India-US partnership. Indo-Pacific will remain the central and critical theatre of operations for both the US and India. It will drive security and defence cooperation between the two partners as they seek to build a stable, prosperous and resilient region.
It is very likely the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) launched during the current Biden Administration will continue to be implemented and strengthened under President-elect Trump’s second term. Expanding cooperation in emerging technologies should witness a strong push between Washington and New Delhi. Further, the Quad partnership which consists of India, Australia, the US and Japan will also see existing initiatives being strengthened and new ones introduced. The grouping could witness additional effort to conduct joint military exercises and forge deeper cooperation in areas such as intelligence and logistics.
Wrinkles during Trump 1.0
Nevertheless, there will be challenges. The first Trump Administration sought to push through military purchases to countries such as India that require considerable Congressional and State Department clearance requirements through the Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) which imposes budgetary strains on buyer countries such as India, despite its “America First” defence sales strategy which sought to overcome the strains created by the DCS.
Such an approach can collide with the “India First” and the Modi government’s Atma Nirbhar Bharat (ANB) initiative.
India will demand technology transfer
Consequently, defence cooperation between Washington and New Delhi might suffer strains, if not outright roadblocks, with India also demanding and insisting that there be more commitment on the part of the US towards military technology transfers if the US wants to secure additional sales contracts.
There will also be demands from New Delhi that there be greater and more effective supply arrangements between the US and India with the latter making the case that American defence manufactures set-up manufacturing and production facilities on Indian soil. Lingering supply problems such as the supply of General Electric (GE) F-404 IN engines for the Tejas Mk-1A will need to be addressed with great urgency.
Trump 2.0 is an opportunity to cement defence ties
On other fronts such as in the arena of counter-terrorism, Trump has declared a “peace through strength” policy which converges with India’s objectives against terrorism. Nevertheless, how the second Trump Administration juggles ties between India and Pakistan especially over defence cooperation between Rawalpindi and Washington will also test ties between India and the US. Despite some of these challenges, Donald Trump in his second Administration will want to cement a legacy, which India and the US must seize upon as a golden opportunity to cement the defence relationship further.
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