The real hero of BJP’s Haryana victory: Modi, Nadda, or the karyakarta?

This election was one of meticulous groundwork. BJP’s strong base of karyakartas, backed by the RSS, laid the foundation for this win. As one BJP leader aptly noted, the party’s approach has moved from micro-management to "nano-management." In a previous column, this columnist has sensed this shift in favour of the BJP. (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/haryanas-multi-layered-battle-make-it-a-gripping-election-12827400.html)

Both BJP and Congress secured around 40 percent of the votes, making it a close contest. It is tough for pollsters to guesswork the votes-to-seat conversion. If pollsters had asked about a leader or a specific issue, they would have received standard responses. Yet, the real action happened in the final week, mostly at the constituency level, which is why the exit polls got it wrong. We should, however, cut pollsters some slack. The actual results come in a few days anyway, so treating exit polls as some ultimate betrayal feels immature.

What worked for the BJP?

The BJP was criticized for giving tickets to turncoats, dynasts, and defectors — a strategy that led to their downfall in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections. Yet, with the same "undesirable" tactics they managed to win Haryana. The political actors and the watchers view the game with different glasses.

A decisive factor that swung the state in the favour of the BJP, is how the party managed counter-polarization against the Jat community. They promised welfare for the 36 biradaris (communities) and pledged to raise the income cap for the creamy layer in reservations from Rs 6 lakh to Rs 8 lakh for the OBCs.

There’s also a misperception that the BJP is anti-Jat, which isn’t accurate. They fielded 16 Jat candidates, and notable political families like those of Bansi Lal and Devi Lal are aligned with the BJP. Even Kiran Choudhry, bahu of Bansi Lal, found a place in the Rajya Sabha under BJP’s watch. As a result, the BJP has managed to win seats in Jat heartland such as Hisar, Rohtak and Sonipat.

Apart from the "nano-management", driven by unified leadership, the relentless discipline of the karyakartas is the major factor in this victory. It will be fair to the declare them the as the heroes of the win.

What went wrong for the Congress?

It is well-known that BJP’s ground game is superior to Congress in most parts of India. However, in states like Haryana and Rajasthan, where strong regional figures hold sway, Congress’ ground efforts weren’t all that weak. So why did they falter?

Perhaps Congress overestimated the lingering momentum from the Lok Sabha elections, hoping to cash in on the same dissatisfaction among farmers and other aggrieved groups. But like in real life, you can cash a cheque only once.

The Congress focused too much on sustaining the hawa, rather than creating new local narratives. Meanwhile, Bhupinder Singh Hooda took full control of ticket distribution, favouring loyalists over those who had better chances of winning. Perhaps he believed that the closer Congress got to the halfway mark, the more his chances of becoming chief minister would grow. Hence, the Jat votes seems to have dispersed based on the local candidates.

The other pole of the Congress, the Dalit votes, didn’t fully consolidate behind Congress as it did during the Lok Sabha elections. The bogey of abolition of reservations by the BJP, which loomed large earlier, had faded. Moreover, the sidelining of Kumari Selja, a key Dalit leader, didn’t sit well with the community. As a result, Dalit votes scattered — some went to BJP, some to JJP and INLD, and others to independents.

National Implications

What does this mean for the national political landscape? One emerging question is: who will fill the void as the next big Jat leader after Hooda’s impending retirement? It may take more than a few years to settle that question.  The BJP will endeavour to wiggle its way into capturing this vote bank.

Looking ahead to the Maharashtra elections, the political dynamics with the Marathas resemble the Jats in Haryana. Both are the dominant agrarian communities in their respective states and the smaller communities like to keep their powers in check. Strategists may even consider counter-polarization against the Marathas, a tactic that proved effective in Haryana.

For Congress, the narrative momentum they had hoped to carry forward from the Lok Sabha elections has come to a grinding halt. They can no longer rely on the same rhetoric. We can see the effects in the upcoming parliament session. Also, the central high-command, already on the backfoot, will face challenges from places like Karnataka.

Meanwhile, the RSS will claim their pound of flesh (pun intended), having played a significant role in candidate selection and party operations. They will want a large say in not just candidate selection in Jharkhand and Maharashtra, but also in the choice of the next party president.

The andolanjeevis, who were excited at the prospects of marching unhindered through Haryana to Jantar Mantar under a Congress rule, will be seething in bitterness

Life Lessons from BJP's Haryana Victory

In the end, BJP’s victory in Haryana is reminiscent of one of those gritty Rahul Dravid innings. The pitch is misbehaving, the conditions are hostile, the opposition bowlers are on top — but you grind it out, and carve out a hard-fought 50 or 100 that turns the match.

Beyond the realm of politics, what lessons can individuals and organizations draw from BJP’s win? Oftentimes the leaders inspire the karyakartas. That is their job. But there are times when the grassroot workers, put their hands up and inspire the leaders.

For those in leadership, it’s about controlling what you can, focusing on the process, inspiring coworkers, setting up strong systems and processes, and giving your best shot irrespective of the perceived outcome. The happenings in the land of Bhagavad Gita just reminded us of the age-old instruction - to do our duties, dispassionately and well.