As nations chart their paths toward economic advancement and technological innovation, the focus has steadily shifted to securing key resources that underpin modern industries. With the rapid rise of clean energy technologies and digital infrastructure, minerals like copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, manganese and rare earth elements have emerged as essential building blocks for economic growth. Recognizing their importance, countries around the world are increasingly developing strategies and policy frameworks to enhance resource security and ensure reliable and steady access to these minerals.
Among these, copper stands out as critical and is often dubbed the “new oil” because of its key role in emerging technologies and green transition. The strategic value of copper is further highlighted by recent policy interventions. Germany has publicly called for Europe to limit the supply of copper scrap to China, arguing that Chinese buyers are outbidding European smelters and causing raw material shortages for domestic industry. China’s aggressive purchasing of copper scrap is driven by its rapidly expanding smelting capacity and its determination to secure the copper needed for its domestic use, which has intensified global competition for this vital metal.
As India prepares for rapid economic growth and green transition, it has much to learn from China’s playbook. Despite limited domestic copper reserves, China’s long-term planning, integration across the supply chain and strategic investments have ensured steady supply of copper for its industries. Given the vulnerabilities in global supply chains and price fluctuations, it is time for India to adopt a comprehensive strategy for copper across the entire lifecycle.
Copper reserves are largely concentrated in a few countries like Chile, Peru and Australia, but China dominates the copper refining and processing. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China accounts for 45% of global copper output and controls 53% of processing capacity. This didn’t happen overnight, but it stemmed from decades of deliberate strategy of long-term investments in strategic promotion of copper in industrialization and infrastructure development. This resulted in massive “above-ground” reserves in the form of in-use stocks, i.e. copper already embedded in infrastructure and products, which they can recycle to reduce their dependency on mined copper.
As per industry estimates, China’s in-use copper stock is approximately 116 million tonnes (Mt) with a per capita stock of roughly 80 kg. India, in comparison, is much smaller at 15.2 Mt with a per capita stock of just 10.8 kg, one of the lowest in the world. This disparity presents an opportunity for strategic planning.
As the world’s most populous country and fourth-largest economy, India still lags behind China and other developing countries in per capita use of copper. As our economy expands, demand for copper in India is projected to grow 5.4 times by 2047, covering sectors such as building construction, infrastructure, renewables and transportation among other. However, India holds just 0.31% of the world’s copper ore reserves, leaving us heavily dependent on imports from copper-rich countries at international prices, which adds to our import bill.
Although short-term risks are limited, the rising demand and vulnerable global supply chains indicate that copper’s risk profile may intensify in the coming years. One way India could mitigate this risk is by building up stock-in-use of copper by ramping up purchase and usage of copper today, acting as a hedge against price and potential supply disruptions, something which China did decades ago.
As we are aware, copper can be recycled infinitely without any loss in quality, making it a sustainable solution for meeting growing demand. India already reuses 95-99% of annually generated copper scrap by remelting, but inefficiencies in the process lead to notable quality degradation. Strengthening recycling technologies can reduce reliance on mined copper and foreign exchange. Policies to retain copper scrap within the country and restrict its export can be beneficial in the long term.
Drawing inspiration from China, India should accelerate its copper adoption to build its in-use functional reserves or above-ground mines until we reach developed economy status. For instance, prioritising copper usage in government procurement across power and infrastructure by replacing other materials that are domestically mined abundantly, we can steadily build copper in-use stocks, creating a self-sustaining cycle.
Using more copper today, will build copper stock-in-use, that will be available for meeting future demand needs through recycling, thus reducing dependency on imported mined copper. This proactive approach will safeguard India’s resource security and also ensure that this vital metal continues to drive its growth, innovation, and sustainability objectives for decades ahead.
(Mayur Karmarkar is Managing Director, International Copper Association (ICA) India.)
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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