Syria: Liberation or perdition?

Though the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and  Turkiye met in a trilateral format on the sidelines of the Doha Forum on Saturday to discuss a political settlement, the rebels took the Syrian capital unopposed the very the next day. The three countries have been involved since 2017 in the so-called Astana Format talks seeking a political settlement in Syria. But the political solution has to wait now.

Civil war made Syria a playground for multiple powers

Syria’s descent into a deadly war fuelled by the intervention of foreign powers, after the Assad regime unleashed a crackdown on peaceful pro-democracy protests during the Arab Spring in 2011.

Russia and Iran and even Hezbollah helped Assad quell the advancing rebels, supported by both Turkey and Qatar in 2015.

Syria became a veritable ground of various geopolitical interests, sometimes aligned, sometimes competing, of various countries from Israel to the United States to Turkey.

The quintessential scenes of jubilation after toppling an authoritarian regime were beamed far and wide from many parts of Syria are par for the course. But the road ahead will not be as swift and smooth as the final takeover of Damascus by the rebels.

Fall of an authoritarian doesn’t always have a fairy tale ending

Dismantling authoritarian yet stable regimes often leads to heightened chaos, as seen after the regime changes in Libya and Iraq in recent history. Revenge and retribution often come in the way of justice and fairness in the course to fill a political and governance vacuum.

People are long suppressed and subjugated in addition to their country being subjected to various jigsaws of global powers.

For the West, curtains on the Assad regime, marks a debilitating defeat for his principal backers, Russia and Iran. Vladimir Putin intervened in Syria in 2015 after then-U.S. President Barack Obama shifted focus, spending more money and time on counterterrorism. In return Putin gained military bases and greater influence in the region, all of which are now under certainly under threat.

Losers and apparent winners in the Assad endgame

The end of Assad’s rule is a definite setback to Iran and its “axis of resistance.” There is no prize for guessing here that Israel played a key indirect role in weakening and the subsequent downfall of Assad by its repeated bombing of what was claimed as Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria.

It's Israel’s headache now to prepare itself to deal with the prospect of a failed state on its border, and deeply worry about whose hands the Assad regime’s chemical weapons will end up.

The potential rise of renewed jihadism in the region is deeply worrying with many insurgents operating in Syria carrying designated terrorists tags. This concern cannot be delayed forever in the name of celebration after the fall of Assad.

Both HTS and the SNA have records of human rights abuses and authoritarian rule in the areas under their control. The Pentagon has made it clear that American troops will remain in eastern Syria, where a small contingent is stationed primarily to counter the Islamic State group. That's no real relief as President-elect Donald Trump has emphatically stated that his approach to Syria will be hands-off.

Unless extraordinary effort is made into transition of power, power-sharing, handling of various interests groups within and outside, and dealing with jihadist elements firmly, the possibility of Syria descending into an unchartered territory of chaos is very real-- and very troublesome for the region.