The unexpected address by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the nation at 5 pm on September 21 was not a mere festive season greeting or a reiteration of the goods and services tax (GST) reforms. The message of the speech, in the backdrop of the tariffs and visa issues, is probably to indicate that hereafter India should and will learn to go it alone. In which case one should see, in coming days, a concerted bid by PM Modi to seek out vulnerabilities like (rare earths, defence, aircraft) and work single-mindedly to make India proof against bullying by the big powers.
Of course one big purpose of the speech was to greet citizens at the start of the festive season, and also use the moment to goad people to go out and spend. The thrust of the speech was clearly to give a push to consumption so that it turns the wheels of capex too. Note the many statements that clearly encourage citizens to take advantage of the tax cuts and spend:
"99% of goods are services will either become free or will fall under 5% slab"
"Income under Rs 12 lakh became tax free this year; This is a big change for middle class...this is a double bonanza for the middle class"
"Now people can fulfill their dreams more easily: Purchasing vehicles, buying home etc will all become cheap"
From encouraging consumers, the PM directly went to issue of the producer - the MSME. The crucial sentence there was, "Our MSME sector will play a big role in making us independent ...I have big expectations from small industries, MSMEs and big companies...What we manufacture should be excellent and should cross all parameters nationally AND globally" (emphasis added)
He then revealed what appears to be the thrust of the speech and the message to the nation : We need to be proud of manufacturing in India, proud of consuming swadeshi products." He went further, "Today, videshi products have become a part of our daily life....we need to get rid of that too."
"Today without our knowledge so many foreign products have become a part of our daily consumption...we need to stop that..."
The unspoken rationale of this thrust for swadeshi and atmanirbharta clearly seems to be the steep hike in H-1B visa fees by the US. Indeed, even the reason why the PM suddenly decided to speak yesterday appears to be the constant stream of slings and arrows, blatantly by the US and quietly by China. The only option India has is to rely on its own consumers and producers, indeed its own genius, seems to be the PM's real message.
One can't ignore the fact that the Sunday speech was devoid of Mr Modi's usual rhetoric of "mitron" or opposition bashing. It was a no-drama speech. And yet one of his best - it was a simple clarion call to citizens that in all we consume, in all we produce let us learn to rely less and less on others.
In 1991, after having to negotiate with IMF for a loan with its back to wall, the then Indian political class took a vow never to be indebted to multilateral agencies again. India has since the nineties, never gone to the IMF or any multilateral bank desperately looking for a loan to make ends meet.
The recent antagonistic behaviour of the US and China is probably going to trigger a similar reaction from the current political class: 'Never ever should India be caught vulnerable to the big powers'. My sense is this is the thinking of the PM and this is the purpose of his sudden speech on September 21. We may well see this theme of building bulwarks against vulnerabilities become the main rationale of the Modi government's policies going forward. The media will probably be quoting this seminal speech of Mr Modi many times in the future.
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