Cassandra in ancient Greece and Malthus in England at the turn of the 19th century both predicted doom. Cassandra foresaw unpleasant things, such as the fall of Troy and the death of King Agamemnon, of which the people did not want to hear. But her dire predictions came true. Malthus proposed that increase in food output would lead an increase in population, that increases in population would outstrip the increase in food production, leading to starvation and death. His forecasts would prove altogether wrong, but people generally gave him credence, and he was a Fellow of the Royal Society. There is one way, however, to align Malthus and Cassandra, and make both foretellers of actual doom: organic farming.
Norman Borlaug, the agricultural scientist, whose experiments with wheat varieties played a big role in India’s Green Revolution, once observed that if we ditched synthetic fertilisers, two billion people would die of starvation (at that point of time, the global population was six billion). Fertilisers are essential to make food production keep pace with population growth. So are plant protection chemicals. The point is to calibrate the quality and quantity of fertilisers and other agro-chemicals to limit their potential for harm, while realizing their potential for good, specifically, their potential to boost farm output and make food abundant and affordable, even as the population grows.
Most animals survive by foraging for food. So did early humans, until they learned how to cultivate plants, and domesticate and rear animals. Ever since then, humans have engaged in production, that is transforming what is available in nature to enhance and expand their consumption possibilities. Production is a characteristic human capability, making use opposable thumbs and the creative intellect.
Advancement of Scientific and Technological Revolution
The industrial revolution paved the way for the scientific and technological revolution. Chemical fertilisers and a whole range of plant protection chemicals came out of these revolutions. These allowed yields to rise sharply, allowing humankind to not just produce enough food to subsist on, but also enough food to feed animals and birds, so as to consumer their produce, which are richer in protein and other nutrients than most plant-based foods.
The use of synthetic fertilisers and plant protection chemicals does come with risks. Fertilisers call for more water than is required for natural plant growth. A combination of excessive irrigation and excessive use of fertilisers can lead to declining soil quality and run-offs that contaminate water sources far removed from farms and farming. The solution is to tailor fertilizer use to sol quality and soil conditions, and calibrate water use, not to abandon the use of manmade fertilisers altogether. Scrapping subsidies that incentivize excessive use of both fertilisers and irrigation would help adoption of rational use of these inputs.
The case of plant protection chemicals is a little more complex. They come as pesticides and herbicides, the first to kill creatures that damage crops, and the second to kill harmful plants such as weeds. These chemicals pose three different kinds of threats. One is the risk of their carrying over into the food chain, entering the body of animals and humans, and causing not just toxicity but also potentially, cancer-causing mutations. Bayer is paying out billions to compensate people who, according to a court finding, developed cancer from exposure to Roundup, a herbicide created by Monsanto, a company that Bayer acquired.
The second risk is the harm these chemicals could do to pollinators, such as birds and bees, and other insects. Smaller pollinator populations could slash harvests, and endanger food security.
The third risk is to soil bacteria. Bacteria are wondrous organisms that work different kinds of miracles that are not yet fully understood. When we say legumes fix nitrogen in the soil, we actually transfer to the plants the credit for the function of fixing nitrogen, that is, converting atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia that plants can use to synthesise food. The credit for fixing nitrogen actually belongs to nitrogen-fixing bacteria in the root nodules of legumes.
Bacteria serve as foot soldiers in the battle against climate change, as well. Nasdaq-listed LanzaTech has developed bacteria that converts carbon dioxide into ethylene, a building block of organic compounds. Trendy sportswear brand Lululemon makes yoga pants from synthetic fabrics derived from the ethylene produced by LanzaTech’s bacteria.
Innovation in Chemicals and Fertilisers
All transformation of nature to make things more amenable for human use entails trade-offs. That is the case with plant protection chemicals, too. The point is to keep innovating, to come up with chemicals that will kill pests and weeds, but would break down afterwards, and leave no toxic residue on harvested food. Quantities and concentrations of chemicals have to be worked out, so as to minimize the dangers of external contamination, apart from creating altogether new chemicals. Advances in computing and in artificial intelligence that help forecast the likely shapes of proteins will help in the process.
Plant protection chemicals represent one area in which India has a competitive advantage over much of the world, although China, with its industrial policy that pours hundreds of billions of dollars as subsidy into its manufacturing ecosystem, seems to undermine that advantage. Policy needs to further strengthen and refine that competitive advantage, not disavow it, chasing the illusional glory of organic farming.
Sri Lanka tried its hand at organic farming, faced with a shortage of foreign exchange with which to buy imports of fertilizer. The result was food shortage that led protesting Sri Lankans into the presidential palace, to oust the president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in 2022.
Organic farming, in short, has been tried and busted. India, with the world’s largest population, needs to prioritise food security over a pricey fad that is unsustainable except as a niche activity.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
