Mizoram Elections 2023: Three reasons why Manipur violence doesn’t impact the assembly polls

One, the question was not "if", it was "how". The people calling were absolutely sure it would impact the elections, and I found the sense of surety slightly perplexing.

This is why, I will try, to the best of my ability, to explain why asking Manipur's impact on Mizoram elections is both misplaced and a little patronising.

Reason #1: Mizoram Is Not ‘Divided’ On Refugees

I am sure you have heard the term: "Do not politicise this issue." From rape to murders to, well, cricket, we are often reminded that we must not politicise something because, well, we should not. The reason is that when an issue is politicised, someone definitely gains due to the aforesaid politicisation, and often, at the cost of someone else.

In Mizoram, there is no "opposition" to what Chief Minister Zoramthanga and the Mizo National Front (MNF) have done regarding the refugees and the internally displaced persons. Sure, the main opposition parties: the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) and the Congress, might believe the CM has not done as good a job in tackling the issue or could have been proactive in extending support, but that is essentially clutching at straws.

What we saw in Mizoram was a "Mizo" response to the crisis in Manipur, not an MNF response. It would not be wrong to say the ZPM, had it been in power, would have reacted similarly to the MNF. There is no divide over welcoming the refugees.

And both ZPM and Congress probably know that blaming Zoramthanga with his MNF insurgency credentials beyond a point may spectacularly backfire for them.

Also, while the IDPs (internally displaced persons) from Manipur  started coming only a few months ago, the Myanmar refugees have been in the state for over two years now, while Bangladesh refugees came to Mizoram last year.

So, no, the elections will not be impacted by each party's views on the refugees because believe it or not, no one is (at least on the outside) looking to milk the issue for political gains.

Reason #2: No Shortage Of Local Issues 

Hundreds of crores of losses due to the African Swine Fever; smuggled betel nuts from Myanmar ruining one of the state's most crucial cash crops; rising count of AIDS ; the unending scourge of cross-border narco-terrorism; a crippled state economy, lack of jobs, lack of doctors: there is really no end to Mizoram's woes.

No matter how one tries to spin it, in truth, the state's economy is far from ideal. A report from earlier this year showed that Mizoram's debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the country at 53.1 percent, with Punjab second. However, the Mizoram economy is minuscule compared to that of Punjab.

Even though most state residents are involved in the agriculture sector, the service sector contributed the lion's share of the Gross State Value Added at 50.08 percent, followed by the industry sector at 25.09 percent. The primary sector, comprising agriculture and allied activities, contributed 24.83 percent to the GSVA. Even though income from agriculture has improved compared to the 2011-12 numbers, it is far from ideal.

And if there is something that the opposition leaders will seek to politicise, they will focus on these issues, not the Manipur one. MNF's mismanagement of the state economy is one of the most crucial campaign points of the ZPM which has, since its inception in 2017, proposed a non-MNF, non-Congress alternative.

Reason #3: A Three-Horse Race And A Sitting Duck 

Mizoram elections have almost always been a two-horse race between Congress and MNF. In 2018, ZPM members contesting as independents won eight seats beating Congress to the second spot. The ZPM, for many, is a welcome addition, and the outfit is on a high after the Lunglei Municipal Elections earlier this year, where it comfortably beat the MNF and the other parties.

While no one believes that one municipal poll victory means much in state elections, it is clear to many that the state which only took shape in 1987 is probably eager for a change of the status quo. Even though the Congress will put up a spirited fight, since it has ruled the state for years, young voters in an anti-incumbent mood are unlikely to prefer Congress over ZPM.

In essence, the three big parties in the state are obsessively focussed on political primacy and little else.  And the BJP? If there is any small impact that the Manipur violence has had in Mizoram polls, it is that the BJP's already slim chances in Mizoram, where it had one MLA, has been reduced even further. Some new members aside, the severe criticism that the party has received from the Manipur and Mizoram residents over how it has (or has not) handled the Manipur issue has left the party high and dry.

For Mizoram BJP, the biggest vote plank seems, for now, to be that only the Centre can rescue the state economy. Which, considering the MNF is part of the NDA, seems odd. Maybe the Mizoram BJP could start by asking why the Centre has not provided Rs 3,500 crore to the state.

Amit Kumar is executive editor of Eastmojo.com, a Northeast-based news portal. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.