Maoist area of influence has decisively shrunk, but the jury is out on their resolve

The over-10,000 strong security force comprising Central Reserve Police Force, CoBRA (Commando Battalion for Resolute Action), Chhattisgarh police force and the elite Greyhounds force of Telangana police had encircled the Karegutta Hill in the heart of Maoist liberated zone for about 21 days to decimate the entire top Maoist leadership.

But the operation, named "Operation Kagar", had to be called off on May 11 following realisation that it couldn't have been continued indefinitely due to some strategic compulsions.

It was always to be expected that the Maoists would retreat when cornered as per their well-known warfare strategy and as has now become amply clear they did manage to escape to safety.

But as luck would have it, Basava Raju did not succeed in reaching his pre-decided safe haven and was ambushed along the way.

The ‘Charu Majumdar’ moment, again

Basav Raju's death in police action marks a new ‘Charu Majumdar’ moment in the CPI Maoist journey as an insurgent force that India's security establishment has found tough to neutralise.

In 1972, Charu Majumdar, the original founder of the Maoist movement at Naxalbari in West Bengal under the banner of Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist), was allegedly killed in police custody, virtually ending the Naxalite movement, as the Maoists movement is popularly known, in West Bengal. But, while many thought that they wouldn't raise their heads again, the Maoists put their act together once again and grew much stronger with passage of time and spread their tentacles across India in many states. The area they dominated from Nepal to Kerala came to be known as the ‘Red Corridor’.

Over 50 years, security forces have been grappling with the Maoist challenge with a mixed bag of successes and failures.

Greatest internal security threat

So, from the death of Charu Majumdar to about 2010, the Maoists grew so much in strength that former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had to acknowledge that they posed greatest internal security risk to India.

This anxiety had prompted his government to launch 'Operation Green Hunt", of which the current phase of battle is only an extension.

Clearly, Maoists have it in them to rise from the ashes and get going again.

The question is: will they be able to do it again following the death of their topmost leader?

Theoretically, the answer to this question is, "yes".

2025 is not 1972

But given the world of difference between the situations in 1972, when Charu Mazumdar's reign ended, and 2025, when Basava Raju is has been shot dead, the Maoists will find the revival of the movement this time as difficult as lifting a mountain.

Unlike post-1972 India, this time they don't have thousands of square kilometres available to them to hide and execute guerrilla raids on police. With the police advancing deep into the forests, that space has shrunk to a bare minimum.

This is due to the "clear and hold" strategy security forces have aggressively adopted since 2010. Slowly but surely, they have been penetrating into the virtually impregnable Maoist bastions over the past 15 years and hold on to the new areas covered.

A decade ago, nobody could have imagined that over 10,000 security personnel would be able to get anywhere close to Karegutta Hill and give Maoists a run for their money.

The shrinking space has also made it all the more difficult for the Maoists to garner local support and recruit locals as their armed cadres since most of those interior villages, which were inaccessible for the police, have  now come under their watch.

Clearly, while the leftovers among them might regroup, they will be forced to wage a battle with a massively depleted military strength.

They, of course, may not get crippled by loss of their top commander. There will always be someone to fill that void. It is believed that Basav Raju might be replaced by Deva, the fiercely combative PLGA chief.

But a lot will depend on how and how long leaders like Deva can keep themselves safe in the event of determined security forces keeping the pressure on.

Veterans advise eternal vigilance

Experienced anti-Naxal operation veterans, however, have no illusions about having brought the Maoist movement to its end. They have seen the tenacity and determination of the Maoist leadership and cadres to keep the police on their toes. They have learnt it the hard way that a momentary loss of vigil or relapse into complacency can turn the tables on them.

Some officials also refuse to believe that the Maoists are anywhere close to being decisively defeated.

They cite what they call as the "urban" wing of CPI (Maoist) as their new strength. They say there are over 500 active Maoist cadres in urban areas and, if need be, their services can be summoned in the jungle warfare.

Clearly, with Maoists unlikely to give up despite being skinned to skeletal existence. The March 2026 deadline set up by Home Minister Amit Shah to bring curtains down on them looks like a target that will probably be hit all over except the bull’s-eye.