Manish Sisodia’s arrest is Kejriwal’s biggest political challenge since AAP’s 2015 Delhi assembly victory

Sisodia has been by Kejriwal's side since the start of his activist career. Kejriwal has never held a portfolio in the Delhi government because the larger strategy of the AAP has always been for Kejriwal to manage political strategy, campaigns, and other political issues, while Manish Sisodia will run the Delhi government. In AAP power circles, it is common knowledge that Kejriwal will never say no if someone says yes.

Sisodia holds numerous important portfolios (18 out of 33) including finance, education, vigilance, excise, and PWD. After Satyendar Jain’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate, important portfolios such as health, public works, and water were transferred to Sisodia. The first obstacle for Kejriwal will be preparing the budget for Delhi. There is no chance that Kejriwal will replace Jain and Sisodia with new ministers. Delhi can only have seven cabinet ministers, so Kejriwal's primary responsibility will be to manage the government.

In addition, Kejriwal cannot effectively manage the education department without Sisodia, as the officers are not on the same page as the AAP government and no other AAP minister is capable of managing this department. This is the result of escalating tensions with the lieutenant governor. During Sisodia's absence, any setbacks to the education system will be irreversible.

BJP's Strategy

The entire excise policy dispute was investigated a year ago, just prior to the Gujarat assembly elections. This controversy's timing is significant because AAP's politics began to shift in early 2022. The AAP won a decisive victory in Punjab at the beginning of 2022 and formed the government. In addition, the party won two assembly seats in Goa. When Kejriwal decided that AAP will fight Gujarat election, the aspiration to become a national party was evident. The BJP's strategy was to corner Kejriwal on the issue of corruption, as they were aware that the public perception of the AAP is that it is an honest party. If BJP is successful in tarnishing AAP's reputation, the consequences will be catastrophic, and Kejriwal's influence will begin to wane.

Similarly, BJP recognised that Satyendar Jain’s arrest had hampered AAP's efforts to expand in Himachal. Sisodia’s arrest will similarly make it difficult for the AAP to expand into other states. Now that AAP controls the municipal corporation in Delhi, this will demand a great deal of the party's attention. Currently, the conflict between the LG and the AAP government is at its peak, so Kejriwal will have a difficult time keeping everything under control and could become largely confined to the Delhi political system.

Arvind Kejriwal's Sliver Of Hope

Arvind Kejriwal is one of the best politicians at playing the emotional card or even the victim card. Kejriwal has been able to play the victim card everywhere, from the Delhi assembly elections to the Punjab elections. AAP insiders believe that Kejriwal would like to use this occasion to rally AAP cadres across India.

Similarly, Kejriwal has already begun to assert that the AAP is the target of a vendetta. He claims that the BJP is more afraid of AAP than the Congress. It is an excellent opportunity for Kejriwal to demonstrate that the AAP is the genuine alternative to BJP. Kejriwal is adept at managing headlines, so he will attempt to capitalise on this momentum in any way possible.

Heading To 2024

Sisodia’s arrest should serve as a lesson for Kejriwal, who must realise that the time has come for his party to take a stand on the issue of corruption. The party will not always be successful by dismissing allegations of corruption, lack of transparency, alleged misuse of public funds, snooping, and financial irregularities as “vengeance”.

Without a doubt, the BJP has effectively constructed a narrative of corruption against the AAP. Similarly, for Kejriwal to be able to fight against the BJP's machinery, he will need to reevaluate his politics, as the AAP's integrity and originality are deteriorating.

AAP has a further worry: Sisodia's arrest comes amid the deteriorating law and order situation in Punjab. Amid the rise of separatist elements, there is renewed talk of Khalistan, and violent incidents are occurring daily. However, the AAP government remains silent while Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann shadows Kejriwal in other states and Delhi.

Any anarchy in Punjab poses a grave threat to India's internal security, and Kejriwal's strategic silence could cost the party dearly if it continues. To combat the BJP, Kejriwal will require allies and friends. Sisodia’s arrest at this time should warn Kejriwal of the risk of AAP spiralling out of control.

Sayantan Ghosh is a Columnist and Doctoral Research Scholar In Media & Politics. He tweets @sayantan_gh. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.