Key takeaways from the 2021 assembly election results

Kerala

For the Communist Party of India (Marxist) this election was a matter of survival, especially with the party not in power in any other state. The changes this victory will bring to the Left party’s national character is another debate — but for now Vijayan is the ‘Captain’. For the Congress this is a setback, but — contrary to what many analysts say — it is not the death knell, at least not in Kerala. That is because the Congress in Kerala is more like a regional affiliate to the national party.

A deeper analysis might also show that the state might have risen above communal politics, though it is too early to say so affirmatively.

Tamil Nadu

The MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) victory, and more importantly the party crossing the halfway mark on its own, will give the party a much-needed lifeline, because it would have found it difficult to sit in the opposition benches for the third term in a row. For the ruling AIADMK, this loss could be the beginning of its unravelling. Its alliance with the BJP might have cost it the election, because there are not many visible factors or signs of anti-incumbency against the state government.

West Bengal

For the TMC under Mamata Banerjee, convincingly defeating bigger parties is becoming a habit. If a decade back it was the Left, this time the regional party has stood up to the BJP’s entire electoral machinery. Going ahead, it will not be easy for the TMC, especially with the BJP as principle opposition party, but the moment belongs to the TMC.

In addition to the above points, there are five takeaways from the 2021 assembly election results:

1.  The BJP’s Achilles heel remains its performance against regional parties. While the ruling party at the Centre performs well when the Congress is the opposition, it is yet to make significant inroads while facing a regional party. In its current power structure where the central leadership overshadows the state leaders, this deficiency will continue.


2.  The Congress is a leaky ship caught in a tempest without a compass. A lot was riding for the party in the elections in Kerala — after all Rahul Gandhi is an MP from Wayanad. The lack of a central leader is only one among the many problems the party is facing. The loss in Kerala and Assam should get the grand old party to get its house in order.


3. With the poor performance in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP is yet to effectively cross the Vindhyas. But for a shaky government in Karnataka (which is ridden with problems from within), the BJP is still seen as a ‘Hindi party’ in South India. If it does not address this problem, the party will find it hard in 2024 to better its 2019 performance.


4.  The election results have yet again shown that the voter is discerning. For example, take Kerala; while the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) won 19 of the 20 seats in the 2019 general elections, less than two years later they have voted for the LDF. Similarly, in West Bengal, while the BJP did relatively well in urban areas in 2019, this time that is not the case.


5. These results will amplify the voices of the anti-BJP, anti-Congress parties. This ‘third front’ will gain importance hereon. If the Opposition decides to unite against the BJP-led NDA, it might not be the Congress that will lead the fight, but the regional parties with or without the Congress.