The trends as projected by the most credible opinion polls proved to be in the right direction. The tension that had gripped most poll watchers, the media and those connected to business enterprises that the state may be heading towards days of uncertainty with a "hung verdict" was happily proved wrong.
This columnist has consistently maintained that the Karnataka voter would give a decisive verdict in favour of any of the two major parties. As one came closer to the voting day, it was apparent that the Congress had a distinct advantage. I had categorically said if the Congress was ahead in Karnataka, it would cross the half-way mark.
Congress’s wider spread, BJP’s deeper pockets
My logic was simple. On the past four occasions — 1983, 2004, 2008 and 2018 — when Karnataka has had a legislature without a clear majority for a single party, on the first occasion (1983), the Janata Party was the single largest party and on the remaining three occasions, it was the BJP The Janata Party (in 1983) and the BJP were not able to convert their being the leading party into a majority simply because of their limited political footprint in the state.
They either had a limited reach in the Old Mysore region (in the case of the BJP) or came up with an average performance in North Karnataka (Janata Party). Given the spread of support that the Congress enjoys, it goes beyond the majority marks whenever it has a significant lead in the vote share.
Keeping in mind this trend, when the exit polls projected the Congress to be in the lead, it was clear it would cross the majority mark. Though the morning of May 13 saw a few moments when it appeared that the Congress could get stuck between 105 and 110, it did cross the majority threshold by a comfortable (though not spectacular) margin.
There has been intense debate on what explains the verdict. The Congress achieved a seven percentage point lead over the BJP in terms of votes. The BJP more or less retained its vote share of 2018. Given the vagaries of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, the same vote share led to a plummeting of seats for the BJP from 104 in 2018 to 65 in 2023.
On the other hand, a five percentage point vote share increase for the Congress resulted in its seats increasing from 80 to 135. If one were to describe the victory, there could be multiple explanations: anti-incumbency against the state government; the rainbow social coalition that the Congress was successful in creating; the class divide and the support the Congress received from the economically deprived. The list can go on. This column would use the lens of regional differences in Karnataka to explain the result.
Karnataka is divided into six regions: Old Mysore, Bengaluru, Coastal Karnataka, Kalyana Karnataka (earlier called Hyderabad Karnataka), Kittur Karnataka (earlier called Mumbai-Karnataka) and Central Karnataka. The reason for the Congress' victory was the BJP being pushed to the second position and the JD-S being relegated to a distant third in the battle in the regions.
Coastal Karnataka, Bengaluru: BJP’s Lifelines
To begin with, let us focus on Coastal Karnataka: This was a region where the BJP had done exceptionally well in recent elections. Given that this region was seen as the “laboratory of Hindutva politics” in Karnataka, developments here were closely watched and monitored.
The result indicates that the BJP did win a majority of seats here but the numbers dropped from 2018. The Congress picked up an additional seat in Dakshina Kannada and did reasonably well in Uttara Kannada.
The voter turnout in this region was less than the voting percentages of 2018 — the only region that saw a decline in voter turnout. This could be explained in terms of the saturation of the possibilities for religious mobilisation as seen in 2018. Secondly, there was also visible anti-incumbency against a few sitting MLAs. This explains why this was the only region that the BJP experimented with the Gujarat model by replacing many sitting MLAs. This region was the only one where the BJP put up a reasonably creditable show, albeit less spectacular than in 2018.
The Bengaluru region saw a see-saw battle between the Congress and the BJP. In past elections, the two parties have alternated in getting the highest number of seats. In consonance with that trend, the BJP did slightly better than the Congress. Some of the Congress’s victories in the capital city were by wafer-thin margins. This area once again witnessed a comparatively low voter turnout. It could be argued that one region that saw the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s weekend roadshow was Bengaluru city as reflected in the BJP performance.
Congress Sweeps The Rest
Central Karnataka has important seats that have favoured the BJP in the recent past. This time around, the Congress came up better. Besides strong anti-incumbency against the government, the rainbow social coalition it stitched of the non-dominant backward castes, Dalits, tribals, Muslims and a sprinkling of Lingayat support could explain this good performance.
In Kalyana Karnataka (Hyderabad Karnataka), the Congress came up with a stellar performance. Last time around, the three major parties - BJP, Congress and JDS, had shared the seats. The rainbow social coalition and the anti-incumbency mood could have fuelled a good performance for the Congress. Additionally, this is a region Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge hails from. He wanted to take revenge for his defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections ( the only defeat in his five-decade-long career) from this region.
Kittur Karnataka (Mumbai Karnataka) has been a stronghold of the BJP. This area has a significant Lingayat influence. The BJP appears to have retained much of the Lingayat vote, but the Congress outperformed the BJP here. It appears the rainbow social coalition that the Congress stitched together coupled with the anti-incumbency sentiment could have been the key factor.
Finally, coming to the most prestigious Old Mysore region. No party has secured a majority without doing well here. The Congress won handsomely here. Though the BJP vote share increased in this region, its seat tally declined as compared to 2018. The reason is the sharp fall in the vote share of the JD(S). The chief beneficiary was the Congress. Even though the BJP increased its vote share, it was not able to cross the threshold to win seats. The Congress, on the other hand, did better with the transfer of the JD(S) vote, the holding together of the rainbow social coalition, and the unhappiness with the state government.
Thus, a comfortable Congress victory is necessarily on account of the specific dynamics of electoral politics in each of the regions that make up Karnataka.
(Sandeep Shastri is vice-chancellor, Jagran Lakecity University, and national coordinator of the Lokniti Network. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.)
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