Over a month and a half since Hamas first attacked Israel and captured hostages and the subsequent heavy-handed response by Israel, leading to over 12,000 casualties in Gaza, Hamas and Israel have agreed to a breakthrough deal on the release of hostages and a four-day pause in fighting. The deal, negotiated by Qatar, will result in fifty women and children held captive by Hamas being released in exchange for the release of 150 Palestinian women and children imprisoned in Israeli jails. The pause in fighting would also enable more humanitarian aid to flow into besieged Gaza through Egyptian and Israeli borders.
The deal has been several weeks in the making with the US and Egypt also involved in the intense diplomatic negotiations. The details of how and when the release of hostages will take place and when the truce will start are unclear. But the announcement of the deal has been met with relief across the world.
Is A Lasting Ceasefire Possible?
However, this does not mean the end of the war on Hamas as Israel has said the deal does not mean it will stop its attempts to eradicate Hamas. Nevertheless, the deal does show that both sides might be beginning to weary of the war.
Hamas might have accepted the deal because its actions have led to the death of thousands of Palestinian civilians. The release of Palestinian children could be a public relations coup for it as it will again showcase to the world Israel’s inhumane action of imprisoning even children.
Israel must have accepted the deal because its war has not succeeded in rescuing the hostages and there is much anger and pressure against the government from the families of the hostages. Moreover, global public opinion, particularly in non-Western countries, is turning against it due to the videos and pictures of civilians suffering in Gaza.
The US, which has welcomed the deal, would also have exerted some pressure on Israel and on Hamas through Qatar and Egypt for a deal because a number of Americans are among the hostages. The US has also brought its diplomatic capital to the mediation table as is evident from Netanyahu suggesting that President Biden was part of the negotiation process. Finally, the longer the war carries on, the greater its chances of slowly morphing into a regional conflict, something which would not be in the interest of either the US or Israel.
Israel has in the past exchanged prisoners for hostages. In fact, when Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was abducted by Hamas in 2006, Israel released 1,024 prisoners in 2011 in exchange for his release. So, by that yardstick, the current deal which releases three Palestinians for every hostage is not a bad trade-off for Israel.
If the deal is implemented to the satisfaction of both parties, negotiations for a longer ceasefire could start. However, history shows that several such ceasefires between Israel and Hamas have fallen through. So, it is possible that there will be another cycle of violence after this pause followed by another hostage deal.
The deal once again brings small, oil-rich Qatar to the forefront of regional and global politics. Qatar hosts a political office for Hamas and therefore has been useful as a channel of communication with the group. It is also an important ally of the US and hosts an American military base. So, Qatar has been able to talk to both sides to bring them to an agreement.
Biden Trumps Xi
There has been much speculation in international affairs recently about the US de-prioritising the Middle East and refocusing on Europe and China. The refusal of countries like Saudi Arabia to toe the US line, particularly on Russia, fed speculation that the US was no longer relevant in the region.
Moreover, China’s role in normalising relations between Tehran and Riyadh and its increased economic and political clout in the Middle East was seen as a sign of the weakening of American influence in the region. In fact, China even hosted the Arab countries and Indonesia in Beijing on Monday in a bid to resolve the Israel-Hamas war.
However, the role of the US in the current deal shows that Washington continues to have immense diplomatic capital and power in the Middle East. It will also boost President Biden’s ratings ahead of the 2024 US presidential elections. So, for now, the deal has enabled the US to steal a march over China, showing that it cannot be written off from the geopolitics of the Middle East and a lasting peace cannot be achieved without its blessings.
Uma Purushothaman teaches International Relations at the Central University of Kerala. X: @Uma_IRTeacher. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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