The broad offensive launched by Hamas, which has been holding the governmental reins in the Gaza Strip, against Israel is quite different from other Israel-Arab conflicts. Hamas is not recognised as a state entity as is the Palestinian Authority in the hands of Al Fatah in the West Bank. Hamas is considered a band of Palestinian militants.
That is, hostilities between Hamas and Israel are on a different footing from one between Palestinian Authority (PA) and Israel. Hamas remains opposed to Fatah, which is in control of PA with Fatah’s Mahmoud Abbas as president.
Hamas Dilemma For Israel, Arab States, Palestinians
Hamas’ successful attack on Saturday has raised many questions about Israel’s unpreparedness in this instance, despite ever being on the alert with regard to Palestinian militant groups. The balance of military strength is in favour of Israel, and as things stand Israel would hit back with renewed and redoubled force.
There are quite a few questions that arise from the eruption in the most volatile spot in West Asia. Will the Hamas attack make it the legitimate Palestinian representative in the eyes of its people because Al Fatah has been a passive spectator in the stalled Palestine-Israel negotiations?
Interestingly, Hamas is considered to have been created by Israel to counter Yasser Arafat and his Al Fatah. Hamas is the Palestinian affiliate of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. It is this Muslim Brotherhood connection that makes Arab states in the Gulf region wary of Hamas.
Despite the US-mediated Abrahamic Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco in September, 2020, the sympathy for the Palestinian cause remains high on the Arab agenda. And Israel’s attempts to occupy the Al Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest Islamic shrine after Makka and Madina, and Arab East Jerusalem remain sore points. But Israel’s right-wing parties are quite aggressive about these two places.
The US and the European countries did not have much problem in condemning the Hamas attack on Israel because Hamas is a designated terrorist organisation in the West. And India too had unhesitatingly condemned the Hamas attack as a terrorist attack, and expressed its support for Israel.
The attack provides the alibi for Israel not to negotiate with Palestinians and Tel Aviv can continue its stringent measures of restrictions on Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza. It is these restrictions that push the Palestinians into the arms of militant groups like Hamas – a vicious cycle -- something that is not factored in Western assessments of the situation in Palestine.
US’s Saudi-Israel Ties Bid Delayed, Not Disrupted
The Arab states are not willing to be tied down to the Palestinian problem in charting their foreign policy. The process of delinking began in 1978 with the Camp David agreements between Israel and Egypt, and the 2020 Abrahamic Accords.
The US has been vigorously pursuing Saudi Arabia to open its doors to Israel and extend its hand of friendship, and the efforts seem to be making brisk progress. The Hamas attack on Israel is not likely to disrupt the Saudi-Israel reconciliation track though it could slow it down a bit because Israel would be fully occupied with the task of countering Hamas.
Will this in any way affect the India-Middle East-Europe-Corridor (IMEEC) infrastructure project of railway and ports network?
The original plan included Israel, but when the project was officially announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi last month, Israel was missing, though the plan included Haifa as one of the points on the project map. It became obvious that the US efforts to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel together was to complete the IMEEC through inclusion of Israel. The connectivity project will progress and the Hamas attack can bog down Israel for a while and not for long.
Israel’s Safety And Palestinian Anger
But will it be necessary for Israel to make an equitable peace with Palestine, and look beyond the Hamas factor?
Israel has been banking on its efficient military prowess to deal with armed Palestinian resistance and refusing to make concessions like the establishment of a separate, independent Palestinian state. Given the present balance of military and economic power, Israel can contain Palestinian discontent.
This cannot however be a permanent solution. Israel needs peace with Palestine irrespective of whether Arab states are sensitive about it or not. It can be seen that beyond a point the Arabs are not too bothered about the fate of Palestinians. And the West is only too willing to turn a blind eye to the plight of the Palestinians.
They might extend economic aid to Palestinians but not do anything to give them the political stake they need. It is for Israel to decide whether it would need an angry, discontented neighbourhood of Palestinians and whether it would want to restrain the aggressive Jewish settlements on the West Bank because it becomes Israel’s responsibility to protect them.
Americans would continue to support Israel militarily but the threat to Israel is not any more from the Arab neighbourhood, and not even from Iran. It is from the hapless Palestinians themselves.
Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr is a New Delhi-based journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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