The comprehensive losses registered by the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan is a big setback for the party and also the entire INDIA bloc of opposition parties which had banded together earlier this year with great hopes of putting up a united fight against the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Though it was not said openly, it was understood that as the largest party in the opposition alliance, the Congress would have to do the heavy lifting in halting the BJP juggernaut since the two are in direct contest with each other in as many as six states in the Northern belt. As regional players, confined primarily to their respective states, the other opposition parties can only play a limited role in containing the BJP.
An Undependable Congress
It was hoped that Congress would succeed in keeping BJP at bay in the latest round of assembly polls, thus setting the stage for a competitive fight in the coming Lok Sabha elections. With Congress recording heavy losses in the three Hindi heartland states accounting for 65 Lok Sabha seats, it has become evident that the INDIA bloc cannot depend on the Congress to take on BJP in bipolar contests. In fact, Congress has been wiped out in the entire North, the only exception being Himachal Pradesh.
Though there were apprehensions in the INDIA bloc that Congress would automatically assume a pole position in the grouping and become more assertive in its seat-sharing negotiations if it fared well in these states, it is equally true that a Congress victory would have strengthened and energised the opposition. A weakened and demoralised Congress is unlikely to help the INDIA bloc put up a credible fight against the BJP.
As it happens, the task of dislodging the Modi government in next year’s Lok Sabha elections has become far tougher for the INDIA bloc. It must be remembered that BJP had swept Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections even though Congress had won these three states a few months earlier. Now that BJP has registered a spectacular win here, the BJP will be going into the upcoming general election from a position of strength.
Ally Ire, Rightfully So
Predictably, the poor showing by Congress led to anger in the INDIA bloc as the opposition parties were quick to take potshots at the grand old party for its inability to turn in a good performance in these elections. They also accused Congress of being arrogant and not accommodating its partners in this round of elections.
For instance, Samajwadi Party’s demand for a few seats in Madhya Pradesh was rejected outright by state Congress chief Kamal Nath. Nor did the Congress invite its partners for joint public rallies during the campaign. In fact, a joint rally was to be held in Bhopal but it was called off as the Congress got cold feet following the controversy over DMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin’s remarks on Sanatan Dharam.
The INDIA bloc parties were already upset with Congress for the loss of momentum gained by them following their three meetings. But the alliance went into virtual hibernation subsequently as Congress, which was to fix the next round of talks, decided to focus on the five assembly elections, hoping that a good result will help drive a hard bargain in its seat-sharing negotiations with its alliance partners.
Treacherous Road Ahead
The tables have now turned and it is the Congress partners which will call the shots as and when they sit down for discussions on sharing of seats. The changed dynamics within the opposition bloc will be evident at the next meeting of the INDIA parties, belatedly fixed by Congress for December 6 after its resounding defeat in the state elections.
At the best of times, seat-sharing was to prove tricky as several INDIA bloc parties are fighting each other in the states. No party wants to forgo its turf and each one wants to maximise its gains so that it can push for a better deal in seat sharing discussions. Having lost out in the latest state elections, the going just got tougher for the Congress.
For instance, the Aam Aadmi Party will dictate terms in Punjab and Delhi while the Samajwadi Party is unlikely to be generous to Congress in Uttar Pradesh. West Bengal is another difficult state as Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee is bound to flex her muscles and demand that one INDIA alliance candidate be fielded against the BJP on each seat.
Not only will Congress be forced to be more receptive to its allies, it will not be in any position to claim leadership of the INDIA bloc which is what it was hoping for before the assembly elections. Picking a leader could prove tricky as there are multiple claimants for the post. Who will it be: West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar or Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar? The answer is up in the air.
This is only the beginning. Besides resolving these niggling issues, the opposition faces the arduous task of drawing up a common minimum programme and a comprehensive strategy to counter the BJP’s winning formula. From all accounts, the opposition has a long haul ahead.
Anita Katyal is a Delhi-based independent journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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