It is 35 degrees in the shade in Islamabad, not to mention the looming shadow of a deadly pandemic, but it seems everyone was converging on that unfortunate city. Pakistan’s ruling party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, organised a huge rally, while sections of the Opposition were also engaged in bringing up supporters for a show of strength. It couldn’t get more dramatic, with a sitting Prime Minister obliged to prove his popularity on the street. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan is probably more at home in these surroundings than his smart office where he is obliged to be accountable. Not much better can be said of the others ranged against him.
Pièce De Résistance
On March 27, a besieged Khan addressed the massive crowd in what seemed more like a farewell speech. Apart from the usual diatribe against his opponents, he declared his party’s achievements and future plans in a speech that was nearly two hours long and may have tried the patience of his long-suffering party workers.
What was more damning was the pièce de résistance which came at the end, when he held up a rather tattered piece of paper claiming this as “proof” of foreign interference. Though this is the usual last resort of Pakistani leaders, this time it was with a twist. The alleged perpetrator, the Prime Minister claimed, was in London, but being funded by foreign agencies who have even “threatened” Khan himself.
It’s entirely likely that former Prime Minister and Pakistan Muslim League (N) chief Nawaz Sharif is trying to topple Khan — but that’s something that applies both ways, with the Prime Minister using all tools at his disposal to undercut Sharif and his daughter. What was worse, however, was that Khan’s Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad said he knew nothing about the letter or its purported threat.
Embarrassing Funds
Prior to this was a series of embarrassments, the most glaring being corruption allegation against the PTI. It’s glaring because for all these years the PTI has been claiming to fight corruption, but now its funding is under question. A report in early January revealed that PKR 312 million (INR ~130 million) had been underreported by Khan’s PTI over a four year period. That may not seem much, but in 2017 Sharif was convicted for not declaring 10,000 dirhams from the United Arab Emirates for almost a year after assuming office, money that was never actually drawn, and was paid to him as Chairman of a company owned by his son Hassan Nawaz.
The report further identified around 1,414 companies in Pakistan, 47 foreign companies, and 119 potential companies provided funds to the PTI. It also not just identified various other sources, such as some $2.3448 million from the US, but noted that the party was dragging its feet interminably on details. After all, this case has been going on since 2014, with the election commission’s hearings held over 150 times, and the PTI asking for adjournments on 54 occasions.
Since Khan has signed off on the audited accounts, that’s embarrassing, not to mention legally actionable. Worse, it moved the Islamabad High Court to declare its party funds secret, and to not be given to the complainant in the case, a disgruntled party member Akbar S Babbar.
Army Stands By
The key question is whether Khan has the backing of the Pakistan Army. In this most will cite the embarrassing brouhaha over the appointment of a new ISI chief. That not just went on for months, but the final appointment of Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum was to take effect only another month down the line, with the Prime Minister’s Office then rubbing it in with a series of tweets underlining the ‘consultation process’ with the Army Chief on the selection, and Khan ‘interviewing the nominees’.
Nothing was seen of the Army Chief after that in the PMO, nor of the new ISI head. But at the recent Pakistan Day Parade, there was General Bajwa, chatting with Khan and saluting him as his motorcade took off. No one can accuse the Pakistan Army of lack of discipline.
A Loose Bunch
Meanwhile, what of the squabbling Opposition and the discontents within the ruling party? Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam chief Fazl-ur-Rehman was also busy with his own rally, which from different parts of Pakistan converged at Islamabad on March 26. Rehman is also referred to as ‘Maulana Diesel’, after widespread allegations that he pilfers fuel bound for Afghanistan, and Khan recently was reprimanded by Amry Chief Qamar Bajwa for using that sobriquet to refer to Rehman.
Also in the caravan were cadre of the Ansar ul Islam, a grouping that was responsible for decimating the anti-Pakistan Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan, and which is believed to have had covert government aid. It seems then that Rehman, whose JUI did well in local elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is still on the right side of the establishment.
Then there was the anti-inflation rally by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) led by party vice presidents Maryam Nawaz and Hamza Sharif, the son of Shabaz Sharif, who fancies his own bloodline in the leadership role.
The issue of inflation is sure to strike a chord, reaching some 12.96 percent last month. Ironically, as Dawn notes, the state of the economy is almost back to the Nawaz Sharif days, and the Pakistani Rupee closing at 182 to the US dollar in interbank market. Pakistan People’s Party leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who helmed a highly-successful rally earlier this month, has managed another win, getting Shahzain Bugti of the PTI to join him; though there are signs that sections of the rebel Jahangir Khan Tareen group are drifting back to the PTI, on a sign that their demand for the removal of the Punjab Chief Minister would be (eventually) met.
A Year Of Turmoil
The panicked actions by Imran Khan and his PTI, which stormed the Sindh House recently in protest against PTI dissidents staying there, have given more substance to the Opposition than anything it could manage for itself, its impressive rallies notwithstanding. Given that any new leader backed by this squabbling group, will have less than one year before the next elections, the main political leaders are unlikely to take on the mantle. Far better to blame the ‘leader’ — possibly Rehman — for the very real problems such as inflation that cannot possibly be solved in the immediate future, nor indeed any worthwhile change in policy direction be implemented.
Pakistan is, therefore, in for a year of economic and political instability, and that’s poor recompense for a country that placed its trust in the ‘Kaptaan’ and his merry men.
Tara Kartha is Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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