Pakistan is in the grips of another political crisis. Prime Minister Imran Khan appears to have conducted a ‘constitutional coup’ on April 3 by setting aside the Opposition’s no-confidence motion, on the day of voting, against him with the help of National Assembly’s Deputy Speaker Qasim Khan Suri.
Suri dismissed the action against Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government, terming it against Article 5 of the Constitution, which says, “Loyalty to the State is the basic duty of every citizen.” Following this promptly, Khan asked President Arif Alvi to dissolve the National Assembly (NA), and called for fresh elections.
As expected, the Opposition has slammed Khan and Suri, alleging that these decisions reflect the loss of support by Khan’s government from his coalition allies. Just days before the no-trust vote, a dozen dissenters from within the PTI had come out in support of the Opposition, citing the lack of redress of their long-pending grievances. Faced with dwindling coalition support, and the possibility of more defections from the PTI, Khan resorted to the ‘unconstitutional’ move — never used by any government in Pakistan’s short history of civilian governments.
The Opposition had largely expected an embattled Khan to resign, but his ‘bouncer’ has surprised it. Not the one to give up, the Opposition has taken the matter to the Supreme Court, which has heard arguments from both sides on April 4, and adjourned the hearing till April 5. The outcome of the hearing may favour either side, but, there is a likelihood of fresh elections in Pakistan in the coming months.
A caretaker government for the next three months, and fresh polls are the best case scenarios for Khan. He has prepped his political base, and generated public support in the last one month since the Opposition moved the ‘no-confidence’ motion on March 8. While his coalition allies, and the PTI’s second-tier leaders may be unhappy with him, there is support for Khan among his old loyalists and the young voters, including sportspersons and media personalities. He can build on this support by playing the ‘victim’ card, and blaming the ‘foreign’ involvement in his government’s ousting.
Alvi’s quick implementation of Khan’s ‘advice’ for dissolution of the NA, and calling of snap elections appears to be a pre-planned course of action. But, fundamentally, in his desperate quest for ensuring political survival, Khan has overturned the Constitution and jeopardised Pakistan’s democracy — howsoever brittle it may be.
Significantly, the all-powerful Pakistan Army has maintained its ‘neutrality’ — and has refused to take sides. Director-General Inter-Services Public Relations Major General Babar Iftikhar has rejected reports of any involvement in Khan’s decision, or any information beforehand. The Army is likely in a ‘wait and watch’ mode, as the matter is in the apex court. However, it can step in anytime to intervene if the political crisis goes out of control, and violence spills over into the streets.
But even as it maintains ‘neutrality’, the Army has shown that it will not allow Khan to harm Pakistan’s diplomatic interests. So, while Khan has gone to the town claiming the role of US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu in the ‘conspiracy’ to unseat him, Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Jawed Bajwa has done the damage control.
Aware that Khan’s dangerous blame-game against the US may create both foreign policy and economic issues in the near term for Pakistan, Bajwa, in a recent speech at the Islamabad Security Dialogue, appreciated US-Pakistan bilateral ties. Not only that, he criticised Russia by characterising its actions in Ukraine as an ‘invasion’.
Bajwa’s speech is a clear sign that the security establishment, and even the political opposition understand the importance of the US-Pakistan ties, and that jeopardising them will have severe consequences for Pakistan. Clearly, the Army is cross with Khan for his politically opportunistic shrill rhetoric.
Therefore, it will be important to see the Army’s outlook towards the unfolding political crisis in the coming days. Khan has proved to be a political liability for the Army with his economic and diplomatic mismanagement. So, the Army may prop alternative political contraptions to replace Khan and his PTI.
It will be interesting to see how much the Opposition unity holds, which may come under strain if the court upholds Khan’s proposal of early elections, marking the beginning of a competitive political campaign. In any case, democracy is set for another tumultuous ride in India’s western neighbour.
Sameer Patil is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. Sarral Sharma is a PhD Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Both have previously served in the National Security Council Secretariat. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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