Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had to cut his much awaited visit to Saudi Arabia and fly back to India in the wake of the ghastly Pahalgam attacks. Despite the shortened trip, the Prime Minister’s visit has been significant with several key outcomes. This was Modi's first visit to the port city of Jeddah, last visited by an Indian PM more than 40 years ago. Arriving to a 21-gun salute, Modi held fruitful meeting and delegation-level talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The two leaders reviewed the full spectrum of cooperation, covering energy, defence, trade, etc. The sheer breadth of the engagement is significant. India-Saudi relations have over the past two decades evolved from a transactional one to that of a strategic partnership. The partnership between the two regional powerhouses encompass trade, investments, space, healthcare, defence etc. Perhaps the most spectacular has been the initiation of cooperation in defence, security and counter-terrorism.
How Saudi’s relationship with Pakistan cooled
For long years the Saudis enjoyed a close defense and security arrangement with Pakistan. Under the banner of Islamic brotherhood, Pakistan provided military and policing services to the House of Saud, even a nuclear cover. In the 1970s and 1980s up to 15,000 Pakistani troops were stationed in the kingdom. Pakistan has provided extensive training support for the Saudi military, and even sold them small arms.
In exchange Pakistan received billions of dollars in aid. During the Afghan jihad against the Soviet Union, the Saudis had poured in billions in to Pakistan as a frontline state.
This partnership was dented by two events: the emergence of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and which later morphed into the Islamic State that directly threatened the Saudis. Pakistan was the fountainhead of all terrorist organizations. The second was Pakistan’s refusal to intervene on behalf of the Saudis in the Yemen civil war in 2015.
Meanwhile, the Arab Spring also badly spooked the Gulf monarchies, including the Saudis - the last remaining absolute monarchies in the world. The US, which had till then been the net security provider for the Gulf monarchies, actually supported the Arab Spring. The role of Saudi Arabia in terror financing had also come under international scrutiny after the 9/11 attacks. The Saudis had to rethink their foreign policy and diversify their security and defence partnerships. Here, it was difficult to overlook India's potential.
Saudi Arabia now sees India through a new prism
A breakthrough in bilateral ties came in 2010 during the visit of then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Riyadh, when bilateral relations were elevated to the level of ‘strategic partnership’ in 2010. The same year India and Saudi Arabia concluded an extradition treaty. In 2012 Defence Minister AK Antony visited the Kingdom, the first by an Indian defence minister, all of which tremendously boosted defence ties between the two countries, including in counter-terrorism.
Saudi Arabia today has zero tolerance for terrorism
Against this background, it is significant that the Pahalgam terror attacks took place during Modi's Saudi visit. The Saudis today have zero tolerance for terrorism, or for religious radicalism, they have also long come to appreciate India's concerns regarding terror, especially cross-border terror and Pakistan’s role in fomenting it. The Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Suhel Ajaz Khan has conveyed that the Crown Prince, has "condemned the terror attack and offered any help to India in this regard".
The kingdom has extradited Islamist radicals like Abu Jundal, a leader of the Indian Mujahideen, backed by Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, who was living in Saudi Arabia during his deportation in 2012. Since then Saudis have regularly extradited those wanted by India on account of terrorism. Counter-terrorism cooperation with India has intensified, a natural outcome of the fast developing trade and investment partnership with India. The Saudis have committed to investing $100 billion in India where there is a stable and secure investment climate. More than 40 Indian companies have established headquarters in Saudi Arabia with more joint production in the defence sector anticipated. The Indian diaspora in the Kingdom in 2.7 million strong. India imports 14 percent of Saudi's crude oil exports and 18 percent of its LNG exports.
Saudis still have leverage over Pakistan
At the same time the Saudis continue to possess a number of levers on Pakistan, which has denied any role in the attacks. The Saudis have rolled over a $3 billion loan for Pakistan from last year and are expected to disburse another $5 billion this year. Additionally, the Saudis have agreed to defer for a year $1.2 billion payment by Pakistan on its oil imports from the Kingdom.
How things will develop regarding yesterday's attacks remains to be seen. However, Saudi understanding and support will play a significant role.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
