The fact that Tokyo meet of foreign ministers of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) — comprising of the United States, Australia, India, and Japan — could not come out with a joint statement shows how their enthusiasm remains circumscribed by China's continuing influence delaying and dwarfing their ambitious initiative.
No doubt, the US wishes to set up Quad as an Asian Nato — the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation that ensued US global leadership during second half of 20th century. However, the new leaders of its closest ally, Japan, do not wish to antagonise Beijing. Likewise, while Australia seems subdued by China's 'wolf warrior' diplomacy, India wishes to stick with its refrain of adding 'inclusive' to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) narrative.
Of course, their immediate preoccupations with crafting shared strategies against COVID-19 may have also keyed away their deliberations on regional security.
To begin with, the expectation from this second, but first 'stand alone' meeting of Quad foreign ministers, was brimming with a game changing premise. While leaving for Tokyo, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assured reporters of "significant achievements" to be clinched at this meeting; "something we've been working on for a long time" though without elaborating what it implied. This could have been part of his anti-China missionary zeal in recruiting new allies in the Indo-Pacific where China is viewed as the strongest adversary.
Last two years have witnessed US-China trade wars resulting in espionage arrests, travel advisories, visa denials and US expects all its friends and allies to follow that line. More recently, coronavirus and the US presidential elections have only further fuelled the Trump administrations anti-China vitriol.
In this backdrop, the first anticipated novelty in this FOIP was to see how Japan's post-Shinzo Abe leadership wishes to engage this narrative. Abe, Japan's longest-serving Prime Minister and strongest proponent of FOIP narrative, retiring in August has cast some doubts about it. Abe's successor, Yoshihide Suga, is not known for his foreign policy experience. On eve of hosting this Quad Ministerial on October 5, he told reports of his commitment to "promote a free and open Indo-Pacific" subjecting it to also "build[ing] stable relations with neighbouring countries including China and Russia." His vision of FOIP perhaps comes closer to India's narratives of building an 'inclusive' Indo-Pacific.
India has been the weakest link of the Quad; the only member without an alliance relationship and reluctant to compromise on its preoccupation with 'strategic autonomy' in foreign policy. This has often been expressed in seeking equidistance between Washington and Beijing. However, things have clearly changed lately. In spite of the much-hyped Modi-Xi informal summits, this equidistance had, for some time, witnessed India inching closer to the US and its friends and allies.
Yet, India had continued to harp on ensuring China becomes integral to Indo-Pacific discourses. Now in the face of an unprecedented China challenge involving continued border tensions has apparently cast a reset on its FOIP strategy.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative proposal at the 14th East Asia Summit in November, for instance, omitted China while engaging Australia, Indonesia, Japan, and Vietnam in consultations on its draft paper while inviting others to join. Modi's engagements with world leaders since the onset of COVID-19 as also foreign policy narratives around External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's book ‘The India Way’ have marked this changing tenor, especially a reset in India's China policy. It was India that had called for holding of this second Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting.
Speaking at Tokyo ministerial, Jaishankar underlined India's commitment to work with Quad comprising of "vibrant and plurilateral democracies with shared values" for not just "maintaining a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific" but to also for ensuring "rule of law, transparency, freedom of navigation in the international seas, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty and peaceful resolution of disputes."
India has since dispatched ships to the South China Sea and there are reports about increased intelligence sharing as also of US firms negotiating sale of hundred-plus F-21 fighters that could change India's airpower profile. India perhaps expected this tenor of Quad support on its territorial sovereignty to be part of the joint statement that could not be.
Australia also showcased an assertive stance but the vision of host country perhaps modulated moderation instead of an assertive posturing. Canberra has since April faced China's verbose 'wolf warriors' as also cumbersome hurdles for all its major exports to Beijing. Last month China deported two Australia journalists, and this saw Australian foreign minister Marise Payne assert her country's belief in building FOIP as "a region governed by rules not power...[where] disputes are resolved in accordance with international law... [working] with no more important partners than Japan, the US and India." With Australia joining the Malabar naval exercises Quad has clearly strengthened its strategic linkages.
The Tokyo ministerial clearly missed Abe’s leadership. Indeed, this may even unfold a reset in Japan's FOIP policy. Meanwhile, with US remains determined to build Quad as an Asian Nato and the last few weeks have witnessed its friends and allies such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany committing to the FOIP narrative. Also the idea of an expanded FOIP, with Quad emerging as its critical centrepiece, has gained traction among other stakeholders across the Indo-Pacific.
However, the Quad surely missed its leapfrog moment at the Tokyo ministerial even though their shared challenge from COVID-19, which originated in China, will ensure that Quad unfolding a new regional security architecture for the Indo-Pacific will continue to grow, slow and steady.
Swaran Singh is professor and chair of Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views are personal.
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