Himachal: Shaky Sukhu survives but tough Congress action will sting Virbhadra clan

The Himachal Pradesh Vidhan Sabha has 68 seats. Earlier, Congress had 40 MLAs, BJP 25 while there were three Independents supporting the government. After the six Congress MLAs and three Independents cross-voted for the BJP candidate, and the subsequent disqualification of six MLAs, the House now comprises the total number of 62 legislators.

Out of this, now Congress has 34 MLAs, BJP has 25, and if one considers the three Independent MLAs who voted for the BJP candidate as being with the BJP, the saffron party’s total adds up only to 28, which is still four short of the halfway mark of 32. Therefore, Congress can breathe a sigh of relief.

Uncertain Future

The Sukhu government has scrambled out of the political bog, but only temporarily. While the disqualified MLAs have said that they will challenge their disqualification in the High Court, the precedent in such cases is that the courts are unlikely go against the decision of the Speaker.

The Election Commission may not rush to announce the elections and may wait for the hearings to wind their way through the high court and Supreme Court. However, the EC will have to announce the bypolls within six months if the remaining term is more than one year (in this case it is about four years for all six seats).

When the elections are finally held, whatever the results, the Congress will have to be on its toes for the rest of its remaining term in all three possible scenarios – Congress winning all or most of the seats; Congress winning half of the seats, and the third scenario is that the party wins none of these seats. In fact, in the third scenario, the BJP which is at 28 right now (if one includes three Independent candidates) will reach the halfway mark of 34 seats in the House of 68 and that will make the Lotus operationally stronger than the Hand.

Congress Jodo In Himachal?

While the party instead of placating the six MLAs has acted tough against them to send a strong signal to others that anti-party activities will not be tolerated, the need for a Congress jodo in Himachal is more urgent than in any other state so that any further attempts to defect from the party are prevented.

Vikramaditya Singh, son of Congress's mainstay in Himachal for decades Virbhadra Singh, who hadn’t cross-voted but resigned from the council of ministers (and later withdrawn) seems to be the dramatis personae of the events that unfolded in the last couple of days. But after the disqualification of the six MLAs, they may have been left shocked that Vikramaditya played it safe by not leading them from the front and walking the talk. Instead, he merely made his grievance known to the party and then stayed within the party fold.

It remains to be seen what Vikramaditya Singh and his mother Pratibha Singh plan to do, but their grievances are likely to fester, which is a discomfiting prospect for the Congress in the only state in North India where the party has a government.

Shamsher Chandel is an independent journalist based out of Chandigarh. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.