There is an even chance of the three-year run of southwest monsoons delivering excess or normal rainfall ending this year because of the likely emergence of a phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean linked to rainfall deficits in India, though a clearer picture will emerge over the next two months. There is a 49 percent probability of El Nino occurring in June-July-August, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in an early February post on its website. El Nino occurs when the three-month mean surface sea temperature over a six million square km area in east-central tropical Pacific, at the equator and slightly to the west of the International Date Line exceeds the 30-year average by 0.5 degrees Centigrade.
El Nino is a major driver of monsoons. Since the forecast probability is higher than the frequency of El Nino occurrences (roughly 25) over the past 100 years, it must be given “some importance,” Sivanand Pai, a weather scientist explained. Pai led the long-range forecasting team at the Indian Meteorological Department and is currently on deputation to the Institute for Climate Change Studies in Kottayam as director.
Since 1950 there have been 16 El Nino episodes in June-July-August, as per CPC data. India has experienced rainfall deficits during the monsoon season in eight of the past 22 years. Pai estimates that the odds of weak monsoons were higher because the past three years were “slight aberrations” from the long-term trend of India being in an “epoch” of deficient rainfall. But there were countervailing influences like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Positive IOD means warmer sea temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and cooler temperatures in the eastern part.
Weak Correlation
There is no one-to-one correlation between El Nino and deficient rainfall in India. The Economic Survey of 2013-14 noted, for instance, that during the previous 10 El Nino years, India suffered a rainfall deficit of 10 percent or more in six years. While a majority of drought years in India coincide with El Nino, “the reverse link is not that strong,” the Survey noted.
In 2019, El Nino delayed the onset of southwest monsoons in Kerala, and June rainfall was in deficit by 67 percent. But the weakening of El Nino conditions and the emergence of positive IOD in July led to increased rainfall activity from the last week of July and the rainfall for the season exceeded the long-period average (LPA) by 10 percent.
In 2014, El Nino conditions occurred after the monsoon season, from September onwards. Yet, rainfall that year was 12 percent lower than the long-period average (LPA). The phenomenon persisted strongly throughout the following year. The rainfall in 2015 was 86 percent of LPA. In 2009, El Nino emerged during June, July and August. The southwest monsoon rainfall deficit that year of more than 26 percent was the worst since 1972. Though kharif production fell, agricultural growth improved slightly because of a good rabi crop.
Above Normal Temperatures
India needs to be prepared. Maximum temperatures this month are 3-5 degrees Celsius above normal in wheat-growing north-west India, the Met Department said in a press release on 22 February. Unusually high temperatures last March when the wheat crop was in the grain-filling stage had resulted in the production of the cereal being 3 million tonnes lower than the previous year’s output, but flat when compared to the previous three years’ average. The overall production figure concealed steep declines of 4.5 million tonnes in Punjab and Haryana which Madhya Pradesh made up with a 4.5 million tonne increase. The government banned the export of wheat in May. To poor persons entitled to subsidised rations, it gave rice instead of wheat in 10 states including wheat-eating Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Overall, the allocation of wheat under the National Food Security Act 2013 was reduced from 24 million tonnes to 18 million tonnes.
In January, the government auctioned 3 million tonnes of wheat from its stock to quell retail prices. It also gave wheat to consumer cooperatives at lower than market rates on the condition that they sold it for no more than Rs 29.50 a kg.
The wheat output this rabi season is expected to be a record 112 million tonnes – 4.4 million tonnes more than last year and higher than the average of the past three years. If March temperatures harm the wheat crop, and monsoons play truant, the country will be in a tight price spot as foodgrain stocks are running low.
To reduce the drawdown, from January, the government did away with the bonus monthly free entitlement of 5 kg of rice, wheat or millet per person, which it gave since April 2020. At the beginning of February, wheat stocks with the government were 15.4 million tonnes against 28.3 million tonnes on the same date last year. Rice stocks were 16.9 million tonnes, about nine million tonnes lower.
Vivian Fernandes is a business journalist for more than three decades. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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