Hardik Patel’s exit from Congress is bad optics for a party in the dumps

His exit may be ‘good riddance’ for Gujarat Congress leaders, but it surely is bad optics for the party at a time when its chips are down.

In the battle of perceptions, Patel’s resignation barely few months before the assembly elections is undoubtedly a big setback for the Congress, and a huge boost for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Patel is a fresh addition to a long list of leaders and legislators who have quit the Congress after the 2017 assembly polls. Those elections were the best fought by the Congress in Gujarat after being ousted from power 27 years ago in 1995. It was also Rahul Gandhi’s best election campaign by far as the BJP had to sweat it to barely cross the halfway mark winning 99 of the 182 seats.

For the BJP, Gujarat is a prestige issue. A loss in Gujarat, the home state of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, would have had a far-reaching impact for the ruling party.

Though Patel backed the Congress in the 2017 assembly elections, he formally joined it only months ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls as a working president in Gujarat.

Along with him, Rahul Gandhi was instrumental in the induction of firebrand backward caste leader Alpesh Thakor into the Congress. The Congress gave both of them a good deal in ticket distribution even at the cost of antagonising state leaders. Both Patel and Thakor, who have since quit the Congress, fielded the candidates of their choices on 10 seats each.

One of the major reasons for Patel to have left the Congress is that he wanted to lead the Gujarat Congress, and eventually be named as the party’s chief ministerial candidate but the central leadership refused to oblige him. He also felt side-lined during Rahul Gandhi’s May 12 visit to Gujarat.

It is too early to predict the impact of Patel’s resignation on the Congress’ performance in the upcoming assembly elections. Expectedly state leaders from of the Congress claim that his move will have “zero” bearing on the poll outcome, and that they will fight with the same vigour that was seen in 2017.

The Congress first displayed its fighting spirit at the time of the election of late Ahmed Patel to the Rajya Sabha in August 2017. Ahmed Patel defeated BJP’s Balwant Singh in a tough fight that went past midnight. That win boosted the morale of Congress leaders and workers as they got their act together to come within the striking distance of dethroning the BJP.

While Rahul Gandhi is credited with leading from the front, the other leader who is equally praised for that improved performance is Rajasthan Chief Minister and veteran leader Ashok Gehlot, who, as the Congress general secretary in-charge of Gujarat, chalked out an effective strategy to counter the BJP’s powerful election machinery.

But that was 2017. Much water has flown under the bridge, and the Congress is back to square one. Thirteen of its 77 legislators have joined the BJP since 2017.

The exodus seems unabated as three-time legislator and tribal leader Ashwin Kotwal left the Congress to join the BJP earlier this month. Now, Keval Joshiyara, son of five-time legislator Anil Joshiyara who died of post-COVID-19 complications in March, is all set to join the BJP.

As the elections approach, the defections are expected to increase with the Congress bearing the major brunt. Apart from an uninspiring state leadership, the hunger for that elusive victory is also missing in the Gujarat Congress.

To add to its woes, the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on Gujarat’s electoral landscape is a major cause of concern for the Congress. In a triangular contest, AAP is widely expected to divide the anti-BJP votes and damage the Congress.

It is not yet clear where Hardik Patel is headed to, though rumour is that it might be to the BJP. There is some resistance to this from within the BJP, especially by leaders who owe allegiance to former Chief Minister and current Uttar Pradesh Governor Anandiben Patel.

Hardik Patel was a part of the months-long quota agitation, spearheaded by the Patidar Anamat Andalon Samiti (PAAS) that eventually resulted in Anandiben Patel’s resignation as the Chief Minister.

The other strong indication of Hardik Patel’s possible jump to the BJP came after the state government initiated a move to withdraw cases against him registered during the Patidar quota agitation in 2015.

It is to be seen how Hardik Patel’s exit will affect the Congress, and how much of an effect he will have in the upcoming polls.

Aurangzeb Naqshbandi is a senior journalist who has been covering the Congress for 15 years, and is currently associated with Pixstory.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.