The US embassy in a statement last week stated that a record-smashing 1.4 million visa applications of Indians were processed in 2023. The staggering 1.4 million figure may be of just academic interest for the general public.
The information may also be of some satisfaction for those who earlier wondered why the US embassy and the consulates had given them
appointment dates after 12-16 months when they had applied in the last couple of years. Finance-minded people may perhaps have quickly concluded that Indians enriched the coffers of the US government by some $300 million as visa fees at the current fee and exchange rates.
A few other significant mentions in the statement were that it constituted a 60 percent increase in visa applications compared to 2022 (quite understandable since visa applications weren’t being entertained/processed during the Covid lockdown periods) and that Indians now represented one out of every ten US visa applicants around the world. Considering that US visas generally have a validity period of ten years a conservative estimate may add up to 6-8 million Indians currently holding a valid US visa on their passports for travel.
Huge Market Potential
But did the US embassy statement have a latent message for the Indian carriers that could coax them into reworking their operational plans with particular reference to US operations? Perhaps not, if past trends are any indication because the statement in reality was only a reaffirmation of what most people in the aviation business already knew – that the US has a huge Indian diaspora leading to travel between the two countries on a sustained basis.
Ironically, the share of traffic ferried by Indian carriers to and from destinations in the US isn’t very significant and bulk of it continues to be monopolised by airlines from the Gulf, Southeast Asia and Europe. As the commercial prospects are huge and sustainable one is left wondering as to why have Indian carriers been shying away from expanding their network to include long haul flights to the USA?
Air India remains the only Indian carrier currently operating flights to destinations in the US. Even Air India during its sarkari-ownership days was slow in building an extensive network notwithstanding the fact that under JRD Tata’s stewardship Air India had become the first Asian carrier to operate flight across the Atlantic to New York. This was in May 1960.
It was only 35 years later in 1995 that Chicago was added as the second US destination on the network; followed by New Jersey, Washington and Los Angeles, which was later changed to San Francisco to provide direct connectivity to Indians working in the Silicon Valley. Both Jet Airways and Kingfisher did operate flights to the US before these airlines ceased operations. Vistara has been expanding international operations to Europe but hasn’t as yet ventured to introduce flights to the USA.
As Air India, prior to acquisition by the Tatas in early 2022, operated with a modest and ageing fleet, was generally cash-starved, it did not mount flights to keep pace with the growing demand thus leaving the field to foreign airlines to exploit the flying India-originating and India-bound passengers through their respective hubs in Europe, Gulf and Middle East and Southeast Asia. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that many airlines, particularly in the Gulf, owed their growth in the past two-three decades solely on the strength of ever-increasing Indian market and failure of Indian carriers to augment flights.
Time To Look Beyond Domestic Flights
Another lacunae, which is now being gradually corrected, was that Air India continued to operate services from just two gateways – Mumbai and Delhi. The regrettable consequence was that passengers from cities like Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, etc., felt that if they had to travel to Mumbai or Delhi for taking a non-stop connecting flight to US why shouldn’t they travel via Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Istanbul in the Middle East, Singapore, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur in Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and Frankfurt, Paris, or London in Europe, on an international airline which served their city.
It is ironic that most Indian carriers in recent years have been content on focusing on domestic and neighbouring markets rather than destinations in Europe and the USA. Considering that almost 80 percent of the domestic market is monopolised by low-cost airlines and the aircraft requirement for long haul operations is different, the promoters of low-cost airlines must start looking from the national perspective and government’s emphasis on Atma Nirbharta.
If JRD Tata could initiate action to give India an international airline within a year of India gaining Independence in August 1947 (Air India operated its first international flight to London in June 1948) there is no reason why promoters of Indian carriers currently in operation shouldn’t adopt a similar approach and fly long haul to meet national aspirations. How long should India be dependent on foreign airlines?
Air India’s mega order of 470 aircraft includes 70 long haul aircraft (40 A350s, 20 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and 10 Boeing 777s) but considering that some of these new aircraft would be replacing the existing aircraft in the fleet, the additional non-stop flights proposed to be launched to newer destinations in the USA, like Dallas, Boston, etc. from more Indian cities when new aircraft are inducted over the next few years they may not be adequate to meet the growing demand. This will be particularly true if other Indian carriers do not commence flights on long haul sectors.
More Indian Airlines Need To Fly To US
There is thus an urgent need for not only Air India to look at further augmenting capacity but more Indian carriers to operate on long haul routes. It is entirely feasible that failure of Indian carriers to add capacity may put pressure on the Indian government to concede requests of foreign airlines for more seats to meet the capacity deficit.
Additional seats once given under bilateral agreements are regarded as grandfather rights and hence it may be difficult for Indian players to retrieve lost market when they eventually decide to commence operating flights due to the stranglehold of foreign airlines on Indian market that already exists but can get further intensified, if we continue to give them a walkover in cricketing parlance.
Indigo, India’s largest and only profitable airline with sizeable cash reserves, can have no excuse for not operating long haul flights. The constraints of being a low cost airline notwithstanding, Indigo should seize the opportunity as the govt has since 2014 been extremely careful in granting bilateral rights to foreign airlines only to enable Indian carriers to exploit the Indian market and consequently grow and expand operations.
It is therefore imperative that Indian carriers draw plans for flying on long haul sectors in Europe and USA without further loss of time. If necessary, the government should also consider incentivising airlines for such operations because when Indian carriers grow on the strength of the burgeoning Indian market the employment opportunities get created in India whereas when foreign carriers ferry Indian passengers through their respective countries, the airlines of these countries grow and jobs also get created in those countries.
Jitender Bhargava is former executive director Air India & author of the book, The Descent of Air India. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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