The Congress Party is no stranger to leadership tussles. Over the last five years, the party has witnessed such challenges in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh.
That said, the battle between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar over the chief minister’s position is going to be particularly challenging for the Congress High Command to resolve. Three important factors, make it different and more complex from the other leadership challenges the party has faced. Whatever decision the party takes, it is likely to lead to some blowback and collateral damage, requiring careful damage control.
The caste factor
The sparring between DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah represents much more than just a clash between two personalities. Both leaders have their own distinct caste support base.
Siddaramaiah represents the Congress’ Backward Caste vote bank. Being a Kuruba, Siddaramaiah has a strong support amongst the community. In 2013 and 2023, the Kuruba consolidation was just one of the important factors behind the Congress’ victories. The other was the additional non-dominant backward castes consolidation with the party. In 2018, the year they came second to the BJP, the Kuruba vote for the Congress declined. More importantly, there was a steeper decline in the non-dominant OBC vote. Therefore, Kuruba support in particular and the non-dominant OBC vote in general, that Siddaramaiah brings with him, is difficult for the Congress to ignore.
DK Shivakumar on the other hand has been instrumental, in recent years, in building the Congress’ support base amongst the Vokkaligas. A community that largely voted for the JDS, voted in significant numbers for the Congress in 2023. This was a major factor behind the Congress’ excellent performance in the Old Mysore region. With the JDS in decline, DK Shivakumar is positioning himself as an alternative Vokkaliga face. Keeping this in mind, the Congress can ill-afford to ignore Shivakumar’s chief ministerial ambitions.
Too many CM aspirants?
The Congress in Karnataka has historically had the challenge of having far too many chief ministerial aspirants. This time around, the story is no different. Both Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar have set their sights on the CM’s chair. One to retain it and the other to secure it. Apart from that, leaders like G Parameswara and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge continue to harbour Chief Ministerial aspirations. Parameswara recently indicated that there are voices within the state unit who want to see him as the chief minister.
Likewise, Kharge himself is keeping the door open on his candidature. Holding the CM’s chair would be an ideal way to end his political career. Some argue that his indecisiveness regarding the current situation could be linked to his own ambitions. Both Parameshwara and Kharge could use this as an opportunity to project themselves as ‘consensus’ candidates. The list goes on…
Karnataka in the Congress’ broader calculations
The Karnataka elections in 2023 was one of the few bright spots for the Congress. In most other states where the primary challenger is the BJP, the Congress has fared badly. Karnataka is one of the few states where the Congress can not only hold its own, but go one better than the BJP.
The election victory in 2023 was a much-needed boost for the Congress and the INDIA alliance. The current leadership tussle, threatens to wipe out one of the Congress’ few bright spots.
A mishandling of Karnataka will be a mistake the Congress can ill-afford. The strength of the state unit was a key factor for the Congress’ success in 2023. Central leaders like Rahul Gandhi, played only a peripheral role in the campaign. The state leadership led by Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar were crucial in localizing the campaign and focusing on state level leadership. The Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar truce engineered in the build up to the state elections was a shot in the arm for the Congress. The crisis threatens to damage that unity in the state unit. The current focus on the ‘high command’ and its decision is exactly what the Congress does not need. The relative autonomy of the Karnataka Congress’ state unit, which was its strength, its threatened by the ongoing crisis.
For the moment, the Congress appears to have averted a crisis. The recent breakfast meeting between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar has bought an uneasy truce. That being said, this truce appears to be temporary.
A litmus test for the ‘high command’
The coming weeks will be a test of the Congress high command’s leadership skills. It cannot afford to further postpone the decision on Karnataka’s leadership tussle. That said, this is not going to be an easy decision to take. Whichever way the party high command goes, there is likely to be blowback. The Congress’ ability to navigate these challenges with deft will determine the party’s future prospects in Karnataka. The party’s handling of previous such leadership crises, however, does not bring with it much confidence.
(Sanjal Shastri is Assistant Professor, International Studies, FLAME University.)
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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