Kamlendra Kanwar
For a few days now protests fires against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) are burning in different parts of the country. When the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) proposed this amendment and promised to go ahead with it, not many would have thought that the reactions to it would be in this manner. Many parties would have thought that the government would have a tough time in passing the Bill in Parliament.
However, the deftness with which the BJP garnered the crucial numbers to cobble together a majority on the Citizenship Amendment Bill in the Rajya Sabha where the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is short of a majority was a lesson in floor management.
Behind the numbers reflected on the electronic scoreboard was a lot of effort that went into mobilising support for the measure. That the Opposition failed to get its flock together was a reflection of its deficiency in the area of mobilisation and its lack of doggedness.
The trend was visible when the Bill was tabled in Lok Sabha and passed on December 10. Even opposition parties voted in favour of the Bill, raising the tally of those who approved it to 311, against 80 who were opposing the amendment.
The confidence that Home Minister Amit Shah displayed that the Bill will sail through despite the NDA not having the required numbers was a reflection of the fact that the numbers had been sewn up. Behind-the-scene activity had ensured that the comfort level had been ensured. The way the BJP planned and passed the Bill in Parliament has lessons for other parties on how to approach critical legislation even when the numbers might not be in ones favour.
Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Pune airport on December 7 had led to discreet hints being thrown that the estranged 30-year-old ally was not unwelcome as a future partner if things were to go wrong in Maha Vikas Aghadi, the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress coalition in Maharashtra.
Considering that the Sena had been supporting the projected grant of citizenship to Hindus who came in from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh while the BJP and Shiv Sena were in coalition, the Shiv Sena did not deem it out of place to support the Bill in the Lok Sabha. However, the fierce reaction to the BJP move on citizenship amendment by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi might have made Thackeray reconsider his support to the amendment.
Speculation was rife that if the Shiv Sena supported the Bill in the Rajya Sabha too the Congress could pull the rug from under its feet in Maharashtra leading to the collapse of the coalition.
Then there was the Janata Dal (United) which had opposed the BJP on the abrogation of Article 370. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, despite his instinct to keep the Muslims in good humour in his state, knew which side his bread was buttered. Having burnt bridges with the UPA, he could ill-afford to anger the NDA with assembly elections just a year away.
Of special import to the BJP’s plans were the support of Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress and of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) with two and seven MPs respectively in the upper house. The AIADMK was perforce in the BJP camp since the DMK was in alliance with the Congress. Though this party had a substantial 11 members, there was not too much effort put into retaining the party as an ally. The Shiromani Akali Dal too had nowhere else to go but to the BJP. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was also in the unenviable position where it lacked clout after its ignominious showing in the Lok Sabha elections. That it chose to go with the BJP was a reflection of its vastly diminished status.
On the other side of the spectrum the most conspicuous support for the Opposition came from the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) which relies heavily on the Muslim vote-bank in Telangana. The TRS has been staying away from the Opposition camp but this time around it needed no wooing since its own vote-bank was sure what it wanted.
All in all, the game of numbers has been won by the BJP. With protests spreading like wildfire across the country it is to be seen when the government will proceed with the Act. It is an example of the fact that when it gets down to the brass tacks political alliances and groupings can become ephemeral.
Now the CAA focus shifts to the judiciary as political parties have appealed against it.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a senior journalist. Views expressed are personal.
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