The recent elevation of TS Singhdeo as the Deputy Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh marks a significant turning point in Congress politics. Since the state's creation in 2000, the nomination of a Deputy CM has been a first. This has paved the way for big shifts in Chhattisgarh’s political dynamics.
The decision, made during a crucial meeting chaired by Mallikarjun Kharge in which Rahul Gandhi and Chhattisgarh Congress In-Charge Kumari Shelja were also present, was geared towards streamlining preparations for the impending 2023 elections.
Placating Singhdeo
Singhdeo's rise to his present position has several facets to it, demonstrating both the complexity of power relationships and his significance in the party and the region of Surguja, where he hails from. Singhdeo, once disheartened by apparent marginalisation in the government and its decision making apparatus, stands at the confluence of certain circumstances that ultimately led to his elevation. Ironically, it is a revival that began with his low-profile resignation from the panchayat and rural development ministry, retaining only the health ministry.
The transfer of Singhdeo's trusted staffer from the health department had irked him to no end and had heightened his unease about the prevailing political environment, prior to this crucial meeting involving the central leadership. As a result of Singhdeo's concerns which he expressed at the meeting, he was promoted to the position of Deputy Chief Minister.
The party did not want to corner Singhdeo, who still holds sway in the Surguja region, comprising 14 assembly seats. Congress had won all of the 14 in the last elections. The step was seen as a balancing act between the Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and Singhdeo by the party high-command and to tackle factionalism in the party.
Tamradhwaj Sahu: Twice Stumped
As political observers dissect the move, questions arise regarding the exclusion of Tamradhwaj Sahu from a similar position. Right after the results of the elections of 2018, Sahu was said to have been selected by the party high-command as the CM. The decision was later withdrawn under joint pressure from Baghel and Singhdeo.
Baghel finally ended up getting the CM’s chair. Back then, it was widely reported that there was a formula of 2.5 years each for Baghel and Singhdeo for the chief ministerial post. But this was never officially confirmed.
Now when the party finally decided to make Singhdeo the deputy, the influential Sahu Samaj is wondering why Tamradhwaj Sahu also was not made the deputy CM. A section of the community is getting restless with the Congress and is feeling estranged by the party’s treatment of Sahu.
How Will Sahus Swing?
The role of the Sahu community in Chhattisgarh's political landscape cannot be overstated. Their influence can be gauged by the fact that in each of the last three assembly elections there have been no less than 25 candidates from the Sahu community, from both BJP and Congress combined. The impact of the Sahu community's support, as reflected by the numbers of candidates from the community fielded by both the BJP and Congress, underscores its strategic importance in Chhattisgarh's political landscape.
With a substantial presence in the state, particularly in the plains, the Sahu community has traditionally held an allegiance to the BJP. However, 2018 elections saw a shift, as the community overwhelmingly supported the Congress party in the elections. This transformation signified a significant shift in the state's political equation, giving Congress a land-slide victory. Congress won well-past two-thirds of the total seats.
However, the seemingly growing disquiet within the Sahu community suggests that maintaining this support might prove challenging. After not considering Sahu for the post of deputy, an incident like the communal clash in Birampur, where a young member of the community, Bhubaneswar Sahu, 22 tragically lost his life, has inadvertently exposed the underlying churning within the community. Despite the government's announcement of compensation and employment for the victim's family, discontent has lingered.
Congress Loses Early Advantage
As Chhattisgarh gears up for the upcoming elections, the Congress party is no longer poised for an easy contest, as it had appeared to be the case a year ago. The path to electoral success could be fraught with challenges if the Sahu community, a key component of its support base in the last election, was to waver.
The delicate balance between community aspirations and party politics has to be maintained. Especially now, when the BJP in the opposition has started to come down on streets increasingly against the government as elections approach.
More than just a political ploy, TS Singhdeo's promotion to Deputy Chief Minister denotes a strategic realignment within the Congress party. The action could bring a sigh of relief for the Congress high-command but the political dynamics that it has altered on the ground would have to be dealt with delicately.
With the Sahu vote now up for grabs, it is increasingly becoming clear that the trajectory of Chhattisgarh's political environment in the lead-up to the 2023 elections will be shaped by the complex interaction of leadership dynamics, community support, and political calculations.
Harsh Dubey is a political commentator based in Raipur. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of the publication.
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