Chhattisgarh is heading to assembly polls with four other states later this year. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram are the other states that will elect a new government. Bharatiya Janata Party suffered what can be called a rout in the last assembly election of 2018 in Chhattisgarh. A staggering 10 percentage point deficit separated BJP from the Congress in vote share.
This was exceptional given that the previous elections in the state in 2013 and 2008 were close affairs. The difference in vote shares of the two parties was less than two percentage points both times. Fifteen years of BJP rule in the state from 2003 to 2018, under the chief ministership of Raman Singh, had led to massive anti-incumbency in the 2018 elections. In the final count, Congress won 68 seats and BJP 15 out of the total 90 seats in the state assembly. Congress’s poll promises in its election manifesto were also a major factor behind its landslide victory.
Raman Singh: Scarred By 2018
As the elections approach, with five months to go, both the parties have intensified their political activities. Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel has been travelling across the state for the past few months, addressing public meetings. He is Congress’s face in the next election, though the party may not officially announce it. BJP, meanwhile, appears to be in disarray.
Raman Singh is the National Vice-President of the BJP. He comes with his own weight and position in the party, having served as the Chief Minister for three terms. Though Singh has not been active on the ground, he speaks up on social media platforms on different issues, occasionally managing to put CM Baghel in a spot.
But Raman Singh is still to recover from the debilitating loss in 2018. His tenure was marked by a coterie comprising a few powerful ministers and bureaucrats as his chief advisors. Those ministers lost their election in 2018. The consequence of the 2018 defeat and the concentration of power till then with Singh was that there was no second line in the party for a future transition.
Post-Singh Dispensation Struggles
Four and a half years after the last election, the BJP is still struggling to prop up a new line of leaders, under whom they can go to the voters to face elections. The party karyakartas are confused as to who to range behind, so as to up the ante against Congress.
The workers and the public do not seem to connect to the existing first line of leaders and are seeking a leadership change. A political consultancy firm working for the party in the state has also noted this sentiment in their surveys.
Baghel and his government have catered to the local “Chhattisgarhiya” pride right since coming to power. From declaring official holidays on local festivals of Chhattisgarh to organising local sporting competitions, the Baghel government has constantly positioned itself as the government of “Chhattisgarhiyas”.
BJP has not been able to counter this narrative. Nor has it been able to position a face against Baghel who could be perceived to be “as Chhattisgarhiya as Baghel”.
A Recent Entrant Shows Potential
Ex-IAS officer OP Choudhary, who is currently a state General Secretary of the BJP, is popular among the younger voters in the state. He joined the BJP just before the 2018 elections. Despite losing in the polls, he is perceived by the public as a promising leader with a bright future. He has actively opposed the Baghel government’s different policies on the ground and on social media platforms.
Moreover, Choudhary comes from the OBC grouping. BJP has been struggling to elevate a popular OBC face against CM Baghel, who also comes from the OBC community. But, the senior leaders of the party are wary of Choudhary’s popularity and apprehensive about his rise.
Interestingly, though the current Leader of Opposition Narayan Chandel and the state President of the BJP Arun Sao are both from the OBC community, they have not gained traction as chief ministerial faces or frontline leaders of their community.
Time Running Out
Another setback to the state BJP was the defection of Nand Kumar Sai, its tallest tribal leader, to the INC last month. He was the state president of the party in undivided Madhya Pradesh. Chhattisgarh has a large tribal population, with 29 seats out of 90 reserved for Scheduled Tribe candidates. BJP should learn a lesson from the Karnataka election and not risk losing on tribal seats if it wants to form a government in the state. The party had lost all 15 ST reserved seats in Karnataka this time.
The local leadership vacuum presents worries for BJP given how Karnataka elections have brought forth the limitations of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in single-handedly influencing state assembly elections. BJP has to urgently find a CM face or new leaders who would be perceived by the public as powerful regional leaders of the state.
With only five months left for elections, BJP is running out of time to resolve the leadership crisis. It has to send a clear message to its workers as to who will lead them into the elections, whether it is Raman Singh or one the party’s current senior office-bearers in the state. If it is one of the latter, the party has to also send the message loud and clear that it would not fall back on leaders whom workers have lost connect with. The bottom line is that the looming uncertainty over the leadership question does not bode well for the party in the winter of 2023.
Harsh Dubey is a political commentator based in Raipur. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of the publication.
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