Change in religious demography can influence the socio-economic policies

On the other hand, the share of Jains in the population of India decreased from 0.45 percent in 1950 to 0.36 percent in 2015. The share of the Parsi population in India witnessed a stark 85 percent decline, reducing from 0.03 percent share in 1950 to 0.004 percent in 2015.

Changes in Religious demography in Indian subcontinent

In the Indian subcontinent, all the Muslim majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination except Maldives where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47 percent. In Bangladesh, there was an 18 percent increase in the share of the majority religious group which is the largest such increase in the Indian subcontinent. Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75 percent in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10 percent increase in the share of total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.

Most importantly, among non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination. Myanmar witnessed the steepest decline of the majority religious group in the region with the share of Theravada Buddhist population declining by 10 percent in the period under study. Of the three major religions in Nepal, the share of the majority Hindu population declined by 4 percent, the share of Buddhist population declined by 3 percent while the Muslim population increased by 2 percent.

Only Sri Lanka and Bhutan are among non-Muslim majority countries that have witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination between 1950 and 2015. In Sri Lanka, the share of the majority Theravada Buddhist population increased by 5 percent while the share of Hindu population (the next largest religious group) declined by 5 percent. In Bhutan, the majority Tibetan Buddhist population increased by almost 18 percent while the Hindu population declined from 23 percent to 11 percent in the same period.

Religious Demography and Economic Growth

It is important to understand that the political structures that determine the economic policy of a country are deeply influenced by the changing religious demography. For example, in the case of India, we have seen that to woo the rising Muslim population for electoral gains, there has been a consistent policy of overlooking the interests of Hindus and an emphasis on appeasement of Muslims by certain political parties. In fact, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is known to have said while addressing the 52nd meeting of the National Development Council in 2006, “We will have to devise innovative plans to ensure that minorities, particularly the Muslim minority, are empowered to share equitably the fruits of development. These must have the first claim on resources.” This statement that talked about giving minorities and especially Muslims the first claim on the resources sent alarm bells ringing amongst the policy makers also. This kind of skewed policy framework can’t augur well for the Indian economy. The present incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fortunately shunned such kind of populism and its economic decision making is governed purely by the concept of the larger good for the largest possible sections of the society.

One of the recent examples that show how policy making can be deeply influenced by the religious de Congress’ efforts to introduce a 5% quota for Muslims in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh as a "pilot project" for nationwide implementation.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pointed to the attempts by Congress’ to include of Muslims in the OBC list in Karnataka.  It should be noted that reservations to scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and other backward castes have been considered to be a key tool to socio-economically empower the marginalised sections of society in India. However, with change in India's religious demography, the political structures seem to be getting influenced by it.

The report ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)’ points out aptly that in democracies, the change in political outcomes triggered by demographic changes is particularly acute on two accounts. Firstly, they redraw the contours of elections because demographic changes affect the provisioning of public goods. Politics, especially in a democracy, is not an exogenous variable but quite often an attempt to leverage these changes by projecting a solution to the insecurities generated by changing demographics or vouching to become a representative of the new demography.

In fact, a much deeper study is required to gauge the impact of changes in the religious demography in India on the economic policy framework and how closely it has impacted the economic growth of the country since independence. The study done by the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council can be a good starting point in this regard.

Earlier Sanghnomics columns can be read here.