The March quarter’s GDP numbers indicated the economic slowdown had worsened. April does not bring any better news. Investment firm Jefferies’s maintains an Activity Index, and this index declined in April by 3 percent compared to a low but still positive 1.8 percent growth in March. The chart shows that the last time index growth had declined by this much was in 2013.
The research note said that implied GDP growth for April (based on old series) was 4.5 percent. The activity index is compiled using ten monthly indicators, including rail freight, automobile sales, exports, electricity and credit growth. When the Budget documents become available, investors will be watching for how it proposes to tackle the medium term cyclical factors and longer term structural factors that are holding down India’s growth.
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