Brazil’s floods expose Latin America’s vulnerabilities

True, Latin America has no monopoly on extreme weather, but it is widely considered to be one of the world’s most disaster-prone areas. The
combination of its rich biodiversity and dense urban populations with governments’ fiscal constraints, high debt burden and deficient planning makes the region vulnerable. In Brazil, according to figures from NGO Contas Abertas, federal spending for preventing and recovering from natural disasters dropped almost 80% between 2013 and last year (it was budgeted to increase significantly in 2024). Now the Brazilian government is rushing to help the victims of the Rio Grande do Sul floods, with initial plans to spend almost 51 billion reais ($10 billion), a sum likely to grow once reconstruction costs are included. More robust disaster preparedness mechanisms would have saved lives and money in the long run and prevented situations where authorities are “making it up as they go,” as one report characterised the current rescue effort.

In essence, the more countries prepare for these unavoidable events, the better and cheaper the response will be once they occur. Of course, this simple idea encompasses very complex goals, policies and negotiations, from identifying key risks to investing in rapid response services and fixing infrastructure deficiencies. Having the fiscal accounts in order and designing a legal framework that allows for fast emergency deployment without opening the door to unrelated expenditures is a pending task for policymakers and legislators. Also, financial protection and other creative options such as the so-called catastrophe bonds should be adopted (as Mexico and Jamaica did). Ideally, the objectives of growth and development shouldn’t clash with the environment because they would include disaster risk mitigation in their investment models.

Fortunately, a lot of work has already been done by multilateral banks and organisations, the private sector and governments in the region and abroad. The hardest part continues to be political will: In a region accustomed to living day by day, it’s difficult to convince leaders that saving and preparing for the future is a policy worth pursuing. It generally requires building consensus amid different parties and cooperation across the region, something that’s not in vogue with the fierce ideological battles being fought by Latin America’s left and right. And while more environmentally conscious leaders such as Chile’s Gabriel Boric and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro have emerged, climate denial and indifference continue to resonate in certain political and business circles.

Another way of understanding the logic behind this imperative is to appeal to the selfish incentives of any politician: How much reputational risk are you personally willing to take for not addressing a problem that may hurt your career? The floods will seriously test Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s leadership at a time when his popularity has declined amid a generalized sense of inaction. Tackling climate change was a campaign pledge of Lula, who made two visits to the flooded area but still faces some criticism from those who saw his response as limited. With Brazil hosting the Group of Twenty this year, the UN Climate Change Conference in 2025 and, more politically impactful, holding municipal elections in October, the president doesn’t have much room for error.

Once this question is answered, the next challenge is to avoid losing policy momentum when the immediate urgency dissipates. And beyond the emergency, Latin America should have an active voice in helping to resolve the underlying problem of climate change.

There will be time to analyse the political implications of this disaster and judge the government’s strategy. Scientists could also shed light on how much of this extreme rain event could be attributed to new climate patterns. For now, the focus should be on recovery, making sure that gaúchos (as the locals are known) have access to food, water and electricity and can return to their homes safely.

The optimistic view of this drama is captured in the scenes of Brazilians coming out in massive numbers to provide physical, emotional and financial support for the victims. This inspiring solidarity fuels hopes that Brazil can overcome the polarization of recent years. But such noble human responses must be followed by the emplacement of smart policies and reliable mechanisms.

“Don’t forget about Rio Grande do Sul,” pleaded a local journalist reporting from the ground while trying to survive the waters.

The best way not to forget is to remember to be better prepared next time.

Credit: Bloomberg