BJP’s Southern Gamble: The highs and lows of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections

However, Karnataka presented a mixed bag for the BJP. The alliance with JD(S) did not produce the desired results, with the BJP winning 17 seats, down from 25 in the previous election, and JD(S) adding only two more, making a total of 19 out of 28. The loss in the assembly polls to Congress had already set the stage for a challenging Lok Sabha election for the BJP.

Tamil Nadu: The Unyielding Terrain

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-Congress alliance’s emphasis on federalism, their portrayal of the BJP as a threat to minority and Dalit communities, and their criticism of the alleged bias against Tamil students in exams like NEET resonated with the electorate. On the other hand, the BJP's efforts to highlight corruption allegations against Stalin’s family, issues of drug trade, and high electricity prices failed to gain traction among voters.

Political analysts debate whether Modi and the BJP are significant factors in Tamil Nadu’s Lok Sabha election or merely an artificial hype created on social media platforms. The ground reality suggests that while the results may not match the online frenzy, the BJP’s surge has been significant enough to cause concern among its political rivals regarding the next assembly polls.

The lessons from the 2014 and 2019 elections were clear: the BJP needed an effective communicator who could dispel the notion that the party needed to be more inclusive. While Modi’s appeal could not be ignored, his phenomenon often failed to translate into votes. The party found a potential solution in K Annamalai, an IPS officer who quit the service to join the BJP in August 2020. Less than a year later, he was appointed president of the Tamil Nadu unit. Despite his aggressive campaigning, Annamalai failed to steer the party to success.

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In this election cycle, the AIADMK did not ally with the BJP, weakening the latter’s position. The BJP knew the DMK-led alliance would likely win more seats due to the vote split between the AIADMK and the NDA. This awareness drove the BJP to pressure the DMK-Congress alliance continually. For instance, the BJP tried to use the Katchatheevu issue to embarrass the Congress and DMK, painting them as inimical to national interest. While Katchatheevu had limited impact, the Enforcement Directorate’s raids on locations linked to Jaffer Sadiq, a former DMK functionary and Tamil film producer, on the same day that Modi conducted a roadshow in Chennai, provided the BJP with fresh ammunition to keep up the pressure on the DMK. Yet, this strategy also did not yield the desired results.

The BJP also attempted to woo parts of the AIADMK vote bank by bringing former AIADMK leaders like Nagendran, OPS, and Dhinakaran under its umbrella, besides frequently praising both MGR and Jayalalithaa. Despite these efforts, the 2024 results indicate that this is merely the first step in the BJP’s mission to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu. Team Annamalai is a work in progress, and it will take more than cultural symbolism and initiatives like Sengol and Kashi Tamil Sangamam to win over large sections of the Tamil Nadu electorate.

Kerala: A Historic Breakthrough Amidst Resistance

The BJP has made unexpected progress in Kerala, particularly in Thrissur, where the party is leading. This is a significant milestone for the BJP, given its historical challenges in the state. Earlier, Rajeev Chandrasekhar had promising leads in Thiruvananthapuram, posing a challenge to incumbent Congress MP Shashi Tharoor. However, Tharoor has now surged ahead, reclaiming his position as the leading candidate.

The BJP's strategy in Kerala involved a comprehensive attempt to reshape its image and electoral appeal by engaging directly with Christian leaders and positioning Christian candidates in key constituencies. State leaders argued that traditional political powers, namely the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), had taken minority communities for granted. A BJP state leader remarked, "The minorities have been taken for granted by both the LDF and UDF. It's time for change," signalling a new direction in their campaign strategy.

Central to their campaign was the 'Modiyude guarantee,' which capitalised on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's pro-development and welfare policies. This campaign aimed to tap into the anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF. Modi's frequent visits to Kerala underscored the party's strategic focus on making political gains in the southern region. However, the Latin Church raised concerns, particularly after experiencing a freeze on its bank account due to protests against the Adani port project, highlighting the complex relationship between religious institutions and the state.

Despite the BJP's outreach, traditional Congress and CPM supporters, considering alternatives, have shown resilience. The BJP and Sangh Parivar’s initiatives, such as the Citizenship Amendment Act, a Uniform Civil Code, and efforts to establish historical Hindu connections to mosques, faced substantial resistance. This resistance is deeply rooted in Kerala’s secular ethos, transcending religious boundaries.

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Efforts to woo the Christian voting bloc, comprising over 18% of Kerala’s population, encountered significant challenges. Church leaders expressed concerns about actions perceived as threats to communal harmony and restrictions on foreign donations to church-affiliated charitable organisations. Similarly, the Muslim community, making up approximately 27% of the state's population, viewed the central government's policies with scepticism. Modi's controversial speech in Rajasthan exacerbated the disconnect between Kerala's Muslim voters and the BJP.

The combined factors of the BJP's contentious policies and Kerala's strong secular fabric led to significant consolidation of minority votes and other anti-BJP segments. This dynamic reflects the deep-seated resistance the BJP faces in the state despite its outreach and political manoeuvring attempts.

Karnataka: The Alliance Gamble

In the Karnataka elections, the BJP allied with JD(S) to expand their support base. However, the alliance fell short of expectations, with the BJP winning 17 seats and JD(S) securing only two more, resulting in 19 out of 28 seats. The Congress saw a performance improvement, securing nine seats, a significant recovery from its single seat in 2019.

The alliance aimed to attract key caste groups, such as the Lingayats and Vokkaligas, but failed to deliver the anticipated results. The BJP had already faced setbacks in the assembly polls, impacting its momentum. Challenges arose in transferring votes effectively between the two parties, and JD(S)'s shift from a secular stance to partnering with the BJP alienated some of its traditional supporters.

The election results in Karnataka highlight the intricacies of coalition politics. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi's enduring popularity and the recent construction of the Ayodhya Ram temple, which was expected to boost support, the BJP's inability to replicate its 2019 success indicates a need to reassess its strategies in the state.

Andhra Pradesh: The Naidu Resurgence

The alliance between the BJP, TDP, and Jana Sena led to a successful performance for the Mahakutami (grand alliance) in the recent elections. In the Lok Sabha, the NDA secured 21 out of 25 seats and won significantly in the assembly, weakening the YSRCP. The BJP, contesting six seats as part of the alliance, won three, making a noticeable impact. The spotlight is on Nara Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, who could once again become a key player in Amaravati and New Delhi. With the BJP falling short of the 272 mark, allies like Naidu are crucial to sustaining the government and strengthening its position in national politics.

Naidu's victory was hard-earned. Despite facing ridicule from the YSR Congress and spending 53 days in jail last year, Naidu demonstrated resilience, making a solid comeback in the recent elections. His remarkable performance significantly set back his rival, Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, and the YSRCP.

What led to Jagan's defeat by the formidable alliance of the Telugu Desam, Jana Sena, and BJP under the NDA banner? Jagan failed to repeat his father's success in 2009, as the alliance's strategy, anti-incumbency factor, and support from various communities worked in their favour. The alliance cleverly anticipated a decrease in Jagan's vote percentage due to anti-incumbency after five years in power. The YSRCP also faced challenges with certain sections of the population and benefited from the support of specific communities and youth rallying behind Pawan Kalyan.

Jagan relied on the support of pensioners, women, and rural voters, who were the primary beneficiaries of his governance model. However, the election results indicated that these groups needed to support Jagan, as expected fully.

Telangana: Incremental Gains Amidst Changing Political Landscape

In Telangana, the BJP performed well, winning 8 out of 17 seats, which improved from 2019 when it had only four seats. Union Minister Kishen Reddy managed to retain his Secunderabad seat. The BJP's victory in Telangana can be attributed to the significant dip in vote shares for the TRS party, which ruled the state for ten years. Following the TRS's defeat by Congress in the November 2023 elections, it struggled in the Lok Sabha elections. Although Party Chief K. Chandrasekhar Rao took a bus tour to revive the party and expected at least 1-2 seats in Medak and Nagarkurnool, it failed.

On the other hand, Congress, buoyed by the recent assembly polls, had high hopes of increasing its tally from 3 to 12 in this Lok Sabha election. Chief Minister Revanth Reddy claimed this fight as a referendum on his 100 days of rule compared to KCR’s and PM Modi’s 10-year rule in the state and centre, respectively. Interestingly, the TRS vote bank shifted to the BJP and, to some extent, to Congress in this election. The BJP, encouraged by its win in Telangana, aims to push the TRS to the sidelines and compete with Congress in the upcoming local bodies polls.

As the dust settles on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it is clear that the BJP's southern gamble produced mixed results. The party's triumphs and setbacks across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana reflect southern politics' complexities and evolving dynamics. For Prime Minister Modi and the BJP, the path ahead will require recalibrated strategies, deeper local engagement, and reconsidering alliances to secure a more substantial foothold in the south.