BJP and allies in 2020 | Will bonds strengthen or tensions rise?

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) strong leadership and the politics of alliances may seem to be anathema to each other. However, as the BJP finds itself under the weather due to electoral downslides in the state elections held in 2019 — the same year it convincingly renewed its electoral mandate at the Centre — it may have to shed its pride and reach a compromise with allies.
The BJP’s shock defeat in the Jharkhand polls showed that a milder Hemant Soren could beat a tough-talking and solo flyer Raghubar Das because of a significant alliance stitched together by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Similarly, in Maharashtra, a soft-spoken Uddhav Thackeray led his Shiv Sena out of a three-decade-old alliance with the BJP to become Chief Minister after the election results — because he could not stand the continuance and countenance of BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis in the hot seat.
These developments in both the states showed that a hard-headed BJP would rather risk loss of power than reach a compromise with its allies or potential allies — this could be interpreted as a sign of weakness.
The huge mandate in 2019 for Prime Minister Narendra Modi is often seen an albatross around the BJP’s neck in the states where the allies play a crucial role. A strong showing in the Lok Sabha polls has often led to the BJP not willing to concede a larger number of seats to the allies and instead face the test alone; but with disastrous results.
In Jharkhand, the national party did not just lose the government, it also lost over 17 per cent of the seats held previously.  Though the BJP’s vote share rose by 2 per cent as compared to last elections, its strength dwindled. In May, the BJP had won 11 of 14 Lok Sabha seats. In terms of assembly seats, the BJP was down to 25 from the 37 it had won in 2014. The BJP refused to continue with its old partner the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) Party. A pact could have ensured its return to power.
In Maharashtra, the BJP’s junior partner refused to be overawed by Modi’s Lok Sabha poll success and chose to break bread with old rivals — the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress.
The big takeaways in Maharashtra, Haryana (where it won lesser seats this election than what it did in 2014, but managed to form the government with the support of the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP)) and Jharkhand were that the voter choices are different when it comes to the assembly elections and the parliamentary elections. It also showed that there are limitations to the voter-pull power of Modi. Though his ability to add star-value to the campaign remains intact, the Prime Minister cannot help the BJP win elections easily in the states — whether it is Gujarat or Jharkhand — when the state factors dominate.
Therefore, cobbling up alliances, projecting popular regional faces and tackling internal problems well ahead of time are of paramount importance for the BJP. After all, in the elections that the BJP fared poorly, strong regional leaders consolidated on caste- and community-bases.
In 2020, can the BJP act differently? Or will the policies of the Modi government leave little room for the BJP to retain old alliance partners or woo new ones?
There are two important elections in 2020 — Delhi and Bihar. Delhi does not offer much of a choice. The BJP has to go it alone because it is the principal challenger to Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
However, it is in Bihar where the BJP will be put to test again. The saffron party has to retain the advantages it has gained since Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar returned to its fold after a two-year partnership with Lalu Prasad’s RJD. His party’s voter-base helped the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, leading to the decimation of the Opposition in the state. The NDA — of which Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is also a constituent — won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats. Of the 243 assembly segments in Bihar, non-NDA parties could show win in just 18.
That said, bickering between local BJP and JD(U) leaders has been on the rise. It is clear that after the Jharkhand polls, the BJP will have to accommodate the demands of the JD(U) in the assembly, which will be held around October 2020.
So far, Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi, who is close to Kumar, has managed to ensure that the ties remain unaffected.
However, the Prime Minister’s pursuance of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, which is seen as a forerunner to implementation of National Register of Citizens (NRC), has ruffled the feathers. Kumar firmly opposes the NRC exercise, though the JD(U) voted in favour of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2019, in Parliament.
Poll strategist Prashant Kishor, who still serves as JD(U)’s vice-president in-spite of his growing clientele among opposition parties, is said to be keen that Kumar leave the BJP-fold so that he can be projected as the Opposition’s prime ministerial candidate in 2024.
Kumar is a careful politician and the BJP has to walk the tightrope, not getting carried away by the grandeur of the Lok Sabha poll results.

Shekhar Iyer is former senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald. Views are personal.