Billionaire Bloat-o-Meter: A new lens on billionaire wealth—India’s red flag, China’s green light 

A higher BBM suggests that a country has an outsized share of billionaire wealth relative to its GDP. When combined with its velocity, BBM signals economic distortions—especially when billionaire accumulation outpaces sustainable growth.

BBM or Market Cap-to-GDP Ratio

BBM is similar to Buffett’s favourite indicator—the Market Cap-to-GDP ratio—but addresses its key limitations. GDP data can be distorted, lagging, and failing to capture real-time excesses. In contrast, BBM provides a more precise measure of economic imbalance by tracking billionaire wealth. This is particularly critical in emerging markets, where weak institutions make excessive billionaire concentration more susceptible to political and regulatory backlash.

India’s Risk Zone vs. China’s Safety

Chart 1 maps the relationship between each country's current Billionaire Bloat-o-Meter value (vertical axis) and its three-year change (horizontal axis). Countries with high and rapidly rising BBM scores are in the "Alert Zone," signalling risk. India stands deep in this danger zone, with billionaire wealth nearly twice what its economic ratio would suggest.

China, on the other hand, has followed the opposite trajectory—shifting from a moderate BBM value in 2021 to the "Safe Zone" after Beijing’s sweeping crackdowns on wealth concentration.

Chart 2 illustrates China's rise and subsequent decline in billionaire numbers, peaking around 2021 before falling significantly through 2024. Meanwhile, the United States and India have shown consistent upward growth in billionaire numbers throughout the period.

Betting Against India's Billionaire Boom

Unlike in authoritarian regimes, India’s billionaires won’t face outright confiscation—but as media hype grows, more players will demand a share of the wealth pie. India has 200 dollar billionaires compared to the U.S.'s 800, despite a per capita income of $2,700 versus $86,000. Much of this wealth has been driven by multiple expansion rather than new business creation. History shows that when billionaire wealth outpaces economic fundamentals, governments intervene—Europe’s rising billionaire tax debates provide a clear precedent.

Recent actions by Xi Jinping signal a shift towards greater support for private entrepreneurs. This policy change, combined with China’s widening gap between economic size and billionaire concentration, could present an attractive investment opportunity—particularly in sectors previously hit by regulatory crackdowns. Moreover, breakthroughs such as Deepseek’s AI advancements further reinforce our conviction in China’s potential.