The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), the ‘grand alliance’ of parties formed to contain the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in Bihar, has witnessed a split ahead of the bypolls to two seats on October 30. The Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the two main parties in the MGB, have put up candidates against each other, leading to tensions. The Congress has even announced that it would go solo in the 2024 general elections, and contest all 40 seats in the state.
Congress’ Strategy
The Congress’ strategy is to focus on the 2024 general elections, aware of the fact that the road to power goes through Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The breakup with the RJD, head by Lalu Prasad, is in line with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, the All India Congress Committee General Secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh, upping the ante in that state, making the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati jittery.
The grand old party wishes to strengthen its debilitated organisation in these states, and revive its fortunes without piggybacking on regional parties. With the advent of mandal and kamandal, the party has lost significant support in the Hindi heartland.
It has not only lost votes to the BJP, but to regional parties as well, including its allies. In Bihar, for instance, it has lost the minority, Scheduled Caste and backward class votes to the RJD.
The party recognises that it needs to get these votes back, and the recent split could be seen as an attempt towards this ahead of 2024.
The Congress is seen as the main challenger to the BJP at the national level with direct contest in ~200 seats. With the entry of former Left leader and former Jawaharlal Nehru University Students’ Union leader Kanhaiya Kumar, the Congress hopes to make inroads among the youth, mainly in Bihar, as unemployment is a major issue, especially since the pandemic hit in early 2020.
The split can also be seen as a signal to the RJD that it cannot win on its own in Bihar, and that the Yadavs could face a rout a la the 2009 general elections. Though it is the junior partner in the state, the Congress is the bigger player at the national level, and feels that it needs to be accorded that respect.
In this move, there also lies a subtle message to other anti-BJP, regional parties — that the Congress is the only alternative to the BJP at the national level, and that this fact needs to be acknowledged.
RJD’s Options
The RJD holds the Congress responsible for its loss in the 2020 assembly polls—rimarily because the Congress could win just 19 of the 70 seats allotted. It feels that the Congress is the weak link in the MGB. The Yadavs are of the view that the RJD is the larger partner in the alliance and should be calling the shots.
The Congress’ internal problems (in almost every state) emboldened the RJD to arm-twist it to give up the demand for contesting one of the two seats up for grabs in the bypoll. This took the Congress by surprise, and prompted it to call off the alliance.
On its part, the RJD, like many other anti-BJP, regional parties, is having second thoughts about the Congress’ ability to put up a tough challenge against the BJP in 2024. The RJD could explore other options, such as backing or allying with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, which is aggressively expanding its presence outside West Bengal.
Such a move could see a regrouping of regional parties at a national level, and will put to rest talks of a united opposition against the BJP.
The RJD could also explore option of allying with the estranged Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) leader Chirag Paswan (who’s sulking after being ignored in the Cabinet expansion by BJP) to compensate for the exit of the Congress. This would also add Dalit votes to its kitty.
Impact On Bihar Politics
The split in the MGB will divide the opposition votes and this is likely to help the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the bypolls, and in the 2024 general elections. In the 2009 general elections, the Congress and the RJD could not seal a seat distribution deal, and contested separately despite Lalu Prasad being part of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre.
While the UPA managed to retain power at the Centre, the NDA swept Bihar winning 32 of the 40 seats. The RJD could win only 4 (-18), while the Congress won 2 seats (-1).
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