The assembly election results for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh show that in electoral politics there are two Indias: One in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s juggernaut continues to steamroll the Opposition. Anti-incumbency, infighting, corruption allegations…nothing seems to be affecting the electoral prospects of the BJP. As seen in Gujarat. The other India is where it is clear that electorally BJP has its weak points. More than the BJP’s weakness, it shows that the Congress has got spunk left in it. As seen in Himachal Pradesh.
The results of the Gujarat election 2022 will be remembered for two reasons: First, the BJP recorded its best-ever performance in the state. While publishing this article, the BJP is leading in 150+ seats, with a vote share of above 53 percent. This is a decisive mandate, and to draw a parallel to a recent event, the BJP has done in Gujarat what AAP did in Delhi in 2015 (when it won 67 of the 70 assembly seats).
The second reason will be on how the Congress gave up even before the contest began. Without booth-level management, focus on local leaders, and lack of a state-level campaign strategy, the grand old party did not even put up a fight. The Congress leadership has let down the 41 percent of Gujaratis who voted for the party in the 2017 elections. It has managed to retain about 27 percent of the vote share, but from the heights of where it was in 2017, this is a steep fall, and what a disgrace!
The Himachal Pradesh results paint an opposite picture. It shows that if the Congress gets its local leadership right, it can win — a slender margin, but a respectable one in a small state.
Looking at the results, here are four points to consider:
The Modi Factor: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently the most popular politician in India. The BJP fights election-after-election projecting Modi, and therein lies the problem. While the victories add to his political allure, the defeats cast a shadow — which should pose the question: Is the BJP overplaying the Modi card? The BJP’s victory in Gujarat shows that irrespective of who the candidate is, and whatever be the ground situation, people will vote for Modi. In that sense the Gujarat results partially reflect a trend seen in the past two general elections. The verdict in Himachal Pradesh shows that Modi’s popularity cannot trump local issues and might not be a substitute for a weak local leadership. This is a pattern seen in many assembly elections where the voters go with the BJP at the Centre, but a different party at the state level.
No Tall Leaders: Taking from the earlier point, blame it on Modi’s colossal image, the BJP does not have many tall local leaders — leaders who can carry the party on their shoulders; with Yogi Adityanath being a notable exception, and Himanta Biswa Sarma being another. This lacuna, along with infighting with state units, could drag the party in future state elections.
Blame It On Bharat Jodo Yatra: Much has been said about the necessity and timing of the Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi. The Congress has been criticised for not routing the yatra through the poll-bound states — but to blame it for the debacle in Gujarat would be unfair. In the same vein, will BJY be credited for the success in Himachal Pradesh? Rahul Gandhi cannot be blamed for the defeat in Gujarat, just as he cannot be congratulated for the success in Himachal Pradesh.
By his yatra skipping Gujarat, Gandhi might have avoided a direct confrontation with Modi (which would have worked in the BJP’s favour), but what about the other leaders in the Congress? Mallikarjun Kharge as Congress President would not have expected to win Gujarat; but was such a severe drubbing anticipated? That the Congress leadership is clueless is reflected in the statement made by Congress’ Gujarat in charge, Raghu Sharma, when he said earlier in the day that “surprising results will come in favour of the Congress party. BJP will not be seen in reality. Wait for the final results”.
AAP Phenomenon: AAP is celebrating its performance in Gujarat, and winning about 13 percent vote share is commendable — but its claim that it has put up a fight against the BJP is a bit misleading. This is because the BJP’s vote share and number of seats have increased. AAP has gained at the Congress’ expense. If the Congress decides to focus on the border state at a later point, will AAP repeat this performance or do better?
The Himachal Pradesh results have been disappointing for AAP. This shows that where the Congress is ready to put up a fight, AAP will find the going tough. This further adds credence to the allegation that AAP is eating Congress’ buffet.
That said, AAP has also showed that once it makes an entry, it has the potential to grow in strength. Delhi is a good example. It took over the space of the Congress, firmly cemented its position, and has now dislodged the BJP as well.
In Conclusion
While it is celebrating a historic mandate in Gujarat, the BJP will do well to introspect as to why it lost in Himachal Pradesh. The voters there have rejected its flawed and problematic electoral claim of a ‘double engine sarkar’. While the Congress might take comfort in its performance in Himachal Pradesh, can it gain space ceded to AAP in Gujarat? AAP is upbeat, and has shown that it cannot be written off — but it will be further tested as it ventures out into other states, far removed from Delhi.
As focus shifts from here to the state elections in 2023 and the general election in 2024, all parties will have their work cut out for them; it will be the hardest for the Congress. To borrow an analogy Rahul Gandhi used in 2013, and tailor it to the current scenario: for the Congress to achieve electoral success at a national scale which will make a difference, “the escape velocity required is that of Jupiter. More effort is needed."
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