As Pakistan heads into another of its credibility-deficient elections, one certainty looms over their results. The outcome will not end Pakistan’s vexing internal and external insecurities. It cannot bring economic relief to its long-suffering people or provide direction to the country, which is at the crossroads of its foreign policy challenges.
If there is a landslide in favour of the obvious frontrunner, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the polls this week will lose even the little credibility it had during the build-up to the campaign. Sweeps at polling stations are not unknown in Pakistan. In 1960, the country’s first dictator, General Ayub Khan, received 95.6 percent of votes in a referendum, which formalised his coup d'état two years earlier.
If the main torchbearer of democracy in the current events, ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan, performs reasonably well despite the overwhelming forces ranged against his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the next PML-N government, including its possible coalition partner, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), will lack legitimacy of perception. Pakistan, therefore, now stands between the devil and deep sea, politically speaking.
Pak Army’s Vulnerabilities
There is a widely prevalent misconception in India that the Pakistan Army controls everything in that country and does whatever it pleases out of the Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. Such an assumption runs contrary to the facts of history. All four of its military dictators lost power when the people turned against them and were overthrown by popular movements.
Ayub Khan was dismayed in 1969 to see the ground being cut from under his feet by young military officers who began supporting mass street movements against Khan in both West and East Pakistan. He was forced to give up power 11 years after he became Chief Martial Law Administrator and stepped down on March 25, 1969.
General Yahya Khan, who succeeded him, was swept away by popular anger over the Pakistan Army’s surrender to India and the Provisional Government of Bangladesh, leading to the secession of East Pakistan. He handed over power to a civilian government led by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. The next dictator, General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, overthrew Bhutto and sent him to the gallows. Since Zia died in a mysterious plane crash, his future, otherwise, must remain in the realm of speculation.
Pervez Musharraf was the last General to arrest and dismiss an elected Prime Minister in 1999. His presidency was eventful internationally as well as colourful domestically. But he too was swept away by popular opposition, proving that the Army is not all-powerful in Pakistan.
The incumbent Army Chief, General Asim Munir, would like to manipulate polls in such a way that Sharif would be the next Prime Minister, preferably in coalition with the PPP, as a check on the Sharif family’s sway on power. But since Rawalpindi is not omnipotent, this outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Elections, even when they are guided by men in uniform, can throw up surprises. The Army General Headquarters can do only this much and can go no further as history across the border has shown.
Growing Hopelessness
Whoever becomes Prime Minister will eventually fall foul of the Army because what Pakistan needs is a strong and stable government to deal with its myriad problems. General Munir may start undermining Sharif – or whoever heads the new administration – if he goes out of Rawalpindi’s control.
The next leader must also unite the fractious country, give hope to its people and inspire them. But the Army’s self-interest is in keeping Pakistan’s society divided so that it can rule them, albeit by proxy. Climate change – which annually causes severe natural disasters like floods – and a long history of flirtation with terrorism, in addition to the baggage of sectarian divisions, constitute major challenges for the next government.
Pakistan is a country with a lot of potential, similar to its neighbours in South Asia. Like India, it enjoys a potential demographic dividend. Sharif’s youthful daughter Maryam and the Bhutto scion Bilawal – both are future prime minister material – are its best examples. With a population of 240 million, 130 million Pakistanis are eligible to vote. Two thirds of this electorate are below 45 years of age.
They need hope that their country will not forever be living off handouts from the International Monetary Fund. The challenges, therefore, are formidable. But they were hardly discussed at any great length during a campaign that was lacklustre because voters could see that the current elections are neither free, fair or outcome oriented.
KP Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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