Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces numerous challenges in 2023. Conducting assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir to his ambitious promise to fill over one million government vacancies. But Modi has a distinct advantage even if the delivery continues to have a proverbial glass being half full or empty. The gain largely comes from his larger-than-life personality plus the division among the opposition ranks. The year 2023 is all set to serve as a ‘semi-final’ of sorts for both Modi and the Opposition.
Next year will have a crucial bearing for both, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition — currently divided into the erstwhile Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), and significant others such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Trinamool Congress, and the Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti.
For Modi and his political opponents ranging from Congress’ Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, to AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal, TMC’s Mamata Banerjee, and K Chandrashekhar Rao, 2023 qualifies as a ‘semi-final’ before the 2024 general elections. The range of polls held throughout 2022 across states and municipalities indicated ‘advantage BJP’. These varied verdicts, however, also showed that the Opposition may be down, but not out.
The poll verdict of Himachal Pradesh carried a significant message for Modi just as the Opposition had lots to learn from Gujarat assembly polls. Himachal Pradesh has nearly 96 percent of Hindu population with over 60 percent of the upper caste, but the Modi magic failed to click in the terms of seats gained.
Is the Opposition fallacious in crediting the BJP with the majority sentiments or majoritarianism? Conversely, the division among the votes pulled in by the Opposition in Gujarat makes a strong case for some kind of tacit understanding among the Opposition ranks. But given the mercurial nature and one-upmanship among Kejriwal, Gandhi, Rao, Banerjee, Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, and others, any alliance or implicit understanding appears a pipedream.
The 10 assembly polls scheduled to be held in 2023 would be a litmus test for Modi as well as the Congress, particularly in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh where the grand old party and the BJP would be in a direct contest. These polls are tantalisingly poised. The ground reports in Karnataka and Rajasthan suggest a change of regime. Can the Congress wrest Madhya Pradesh from the clutches of the BJP, or can Modi’s outreach among the tribals and backward classes ensure defeat of Bhupesh Baghel regime in Chhattisgarh?
The political arithmetic is rather simple for the Opposition. If the BJP is checked in the Hindi heartland, i.e. in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh (contributing 65 Lok Sabha seats) and beaten in Karnataka (28 Lok Sabha), the road for 2024 would get complicated for Modi. While a co-relation between 2023 assembly polls with the 18th Lok Sabha may not be accurate, the Opposition wants to target the ‘half of half’ i.e. half of 273 Lok Sabha seats between the Congress and regional parties.
The Congress is currently struggling to keep its house and order in spite of having settled the leadership issue. AICC chief Kharge is not taking the mantle of Congress leadership. Kharge would perhaps gain more confidence after the May 2023 Karnataka assembly polls which is his home state, and, before that, after the February AICC plenary where a new Congress Working Committee would be elected.
The coming year, in that sense, could be more of a year of Kharge than Gandhi who will be completing his Bharat Jodo Yatra, and starting another one in the name of ‘Hath se Hath Jodo Abhiyan’. While Gandhi is likely to be preoccupied with the padyatra, Kharge has a role and responsibility to hold talks with Banerjee, Tejaswi Yadav, Nitish Kumar, MK Stalin, V Kumaraswamy, Chandrababu Naidu, Akhilesh Yadav, and others to come on board in states such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and rest of the states for the 2024 parliamentary polls.
Does Kharge carries enough heft? Probably yes because, behind the scenes, he enjoys Sonia Gandhi’s confidence. Sonia Gandhi has already asked him to continue as the Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha.
Rao is trying to form a larger front with other opposition parties to defeat the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But the assembly polls in his own bastion Telangana in 2023 would test him to be a future Devi Lal, VP Singh, or Harkishan Singh Surjeet of the Opposition.
Rajasthan continues to be an open wound for the Congress, and an acid test for Kharge. Ground reports in Rajasthan are clear that rivalry between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot is a single-most potent issue in the state. Gehlot is largely seen as a leader who has fallen out with the Gandhis following his refusal to hold a meeting of the party MLAs in Rajasthan on September 25. His lacklustre involvement as a central observer in Gujarat saw the BJP posting an all-time high victory there. It was perhaps not surprising that when Sunidhi Chauhan sang ‘Sheela ki Jiwani’ at the Albert Hall, Jaipur, on December 16, to mark 100 days of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, nobody whistled or clapped. The singer herself whistled cheerfully even as members of Team Rahul Gandhi looked askance at Gehlot’s choice of the singer, and the song.
Rasheed Kidwai is a political commentator, author and visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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