Nifty is expected to head back to 18,000 levels in the next two to three months, according to Rahul Arora, CEO of Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, who spoke with Moneycontrol on a range of issues such as rising commodity prices, their impact on the stock markets, if the worst is over for investors, and key sectors one needs to watch out for.
Rahul Arora stated that investors can make money from the market if their focus is right.
"Need to be focussed on why we are entering the market and how we are expecting returns. If we are clear on this, there is more money to be made from the markets. I would not be surprised if the Nifty heads back to 18,000 in the next 2-3 months," he said.
"With central government regaining the largest state of India - Uttar Pradesh, it will give a thrust to infrastructure projects," he said, and added, "This could be hugely beneficial to road constructing companies and cement manufacturers."
On what drives the market and the rally, Rahul Arora said, "Every time we get into 15,500 or 16,000, it is time to buy. Not entirely sure whether this is a sell-on-rise type of market. If crude goes below $100, we could again see some rally happening in the markets."
Nirmal Bank Institutional Equities is positive on growth in the banking and insurance sector going forward.
Rahul Arora said, "Nifty Bank corrected in terms of price and time. Valuations have come down. It is a great time to buy financials. Even if the stock goes up, every upmove is important. Such has been the level of underperformance. Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank on their way up are going to outperform. Both private and private sector banks are good bets - both large and midcaps."
In terms of stock buying, Rahul prefers insurance.
"Valuations of ICICI Pru Life, SBI Life, Max, HDFC Life are good," said Rahul Arora.
Speaking on scope in other pockets, he said, "With input prices likely to be high for the next 3-6 months, Cement looks attractive at the current price range. Ultra Tech in large-cap space, JK in midcap, Birla Corp in smallcap."
On other sectors where businesses are allowed to operate with full capacity, he said, "Multiplexes like PVR, Inox; Hotels like Indian Hotels, East India Hotels are value generators if one remains invested in them for a couple of years."
Reacting to uncertainties around the geopolitical crisis, and as to whether investors should pick value or price in stocks, Rahul Arora said, "It is not always cashing the bottom and top. It is about timing the market. There is value in the market. Investors should rationalise their expectations."
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