Rise and fall: The Congress story in 2024

Of the seven states and one union territory that went to polls, the BJP is part of governments in 4 states (Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Haryana and Maharashtra) and in a national alliance with the party in power with one (Andhra Pradesh). The Congress, on the other hand, only has Jharkhand where it is in an alliance with the JMM, the senior partner in the alliance.

The tally of states that went to polls stands in stark contrast when juxtaposed to the sentiment exuded by the Congress after the Lok Sabha elections. The party had almost doubled its tally from 52 to 99 to the Lok Sabha elections while the Opposition INDIA bloc, with 234 seats, managed to restrict the BJP to 240 seats, well short of the majority mark of 272.

The Lok Sabha high

The Congress began the year on a high note with party MP Rahul Gandhi undertaking the second leg of his Bharat Jodo Yatra from Chennai to Mumbai. The Congress followed it up with a concerted 'Samvidhan Bachao' campaign that turned the BJPs's '400 paar' slogan into a conspiracy to "change the Constitution" and end quota-based reservations.

The campaign worked to the extent of depriving the BJP of a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own for a third successive term. But the hysteria within the Congress was nothing short of a victory and the party left no chance to portray it as one.

There was a spring in the Congress' step and the BJP, despite putting on a brave face, was aware it had been dealt a lethal setback.

The Haryana jolt

Three months after the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had the opportunity to turn its gains in the Lok Sabha elections into reality in the Assembly elections in Haryana. The anger of the Jats against the BJP, the decade-long anti-incumbency and the Congress' resurgence in the Lok Sabha elections -- it won five of the 10 seats in the state -- it all appeared to be adding up towards a certain victory for the Congress.

However, over-confidence and over-reliance on support of the Jat community, while taking the support of the voters for granted, assuming the Lok Sabha momentum would carry it through, resulted in a shock defeat for the Congress -- its third successive loss in a row. The result also allowed the BJP a window to revive its spirits and reinforce its political standing.

Maharashtra: Done and dusted

Despite the BJP's win in Haryana, there was anticipation around the elections in Maharashtra -- a much larger state with a political turmoil not witnessed in any state in the recent past. The five years since the 2019 polls had seen multiple government changes, a vertical split in two parties and the Congress emerging with the highest number of seats in the Lok Sabha polls among them all.

However, the results here proved to be even more disastrous than Haryana where the entire Opposition alliance -- the MVA -- collapsed like a house of cards. The Congress won 16 of the 288 Assembly seats in the state while the MVA was restricted to 48 seats.

The aftermath

While Jharkhand did offer some light at the end of the tunnel, the The back-to-back defeats in two states where the BJP emerged as the winner led to the Congress getting increasingly isolated and questions being raised on Rahul Gandhi's leadership abilities.

As the year draws to a close, the Congress faces a challenge from the INDIA bloc constituents who are set to challenge its role as the 'big brother' in the alliance. Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee has already staked claim to the responsibility of steering the Opposition bloc as the leader of only party which has successfully managed to keep the BJP in check.

The first meeting of the INDIA bloc is expected to be held in early January and the worst may not be over for the Congress yet.