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According to India Today’s Mood of the Nation survey, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has dropped from 53 percent in January to 49 percent in July this year. A four percent slide in his popularity in such a short time is bound to worry the senior leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Modi himself.
This comes months before the Lok Sabha elections, for which the BJP has started preparations in full swing, with the slogan ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas’.
Considered to be unbeatable by many, how did the prime minister get here?
PM Modi announced demonetization of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes on November 8, 2016, waging an all-out war against black money. This was seen as the most radical fiscal policy since nationalisation of Indian banks in the 1960s by Indira Gandhi.
Many were surprised to see that this move came when PM Modi’s popularity was at its all-time high, 65 percent. The strategy to demonetise was seen as an ill-executed policy by many and maimed the predominantly cash-dependent economy for some time. It even cost the GDP of the country and exposed the economically weaker section of the society to financial dangers.
From 65 percent in January 2017, Modi’s popularity sank to 53 percent in January 2018. When the popularity came to 49 percent in July 2018, it was the first time in two years that PM Modi’s popularity slipped below 50 percent.
This cannot be taken as Rahul Gandhi’s gain but other surveys conducted by organisations and election trends suggest that Congress has reasons to be happy. The Congress and the original UPA would not have done any better than they did in 2014.
With its new allies—the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC)—the Congress has become much more likeable to the voters.
What the numbers suggest for UPA
The CSDS Mood of the Nation survey predicted that if the UPA allied with BSP and SP for the general elections in 2019, it can easily get 41 percent vote share across India. NDA’s vote share will be close to 37 percent. If the UPA contested with the same allies as 2014, its vote share will be 31 percent.
Election trends from an aggregate average of vote shares from the bypolls held across India after December 2017 suggest that the UPA with BSP and SP will easily grab 45.3 percent vote share while without them, it will get 32 percent. The NDA is predicted to win only 36 percent of the votes.
India Today’s most recent Mood of the Nation suggests that UPA along with SP, BSP and TMC, will garner a vote share of 41 percent as against the 31 percent it will get if it contests alone. The NDA is predicted to get 36 percent vote share.
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