LoC protocols under shadow as Pakistan suspends Simla Agreement: What the accord says and who will suffer?

The Simla Agreement, officially titled the "Agreement on Bilateral Relations between the Government of India and the Government of Pakistan," was signed on July 2, 1972, in Simla, the capital of the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh. This landmark accord was the direct outcome of the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, a conflict that resulted in a decisive Indian victory and the creation of an independent Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan).

The signatories to this pivotal treaty were the then Prime Minister of India, Indira Gandhi, and the then President of Pakistan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. The agreement was born out of a need to establish a framework for peaceful coexistence and to normalize relations between the two nations after a period of intense conflict and animosity. India, having emerged victorious and holding a significant number of Pakistani prisoners of war (POWs) and captured territories, sought to establish a lasting peace based on bilateralism. Pakistan, having suffered a humiliating defeat and the loss of its eastern wing, looked towards the agreement as a means to recover its territories and secure the release of its soldiers while salvaging some semblance of regional standing.

Key Outcomes of Simla Agreement

The Simla Agreement laid down a set of guiding principles that were intended to govern future relations between India and Pakistan. These included:

Peaceful Coexistence: Both nations resolved to put an end to the conflict and confrontation that had marred their relations and to work towards promoting a friendly and harmonious relationship and establishing durable peace in the subcontinent.

Bilateralism: The agreement emphasized that the two countries were resolved to settle their differences through peaceful means via bilateral negotiations or any other peaceful means mutually agreed upon, without the involvement of third parties. This was a significant point for India, which had consistently sought to address the Kashmir issue bilaterally, resisting international mediation.

Respect for Territorial Integrity and Sovereignty: Both nations committed to respecting each other's national unity, territorial integrity, political independence, and sovereign equality, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.

Non-Use of Force: In accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, both countries agreed to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other's territorial integrity or political independence.

Prevention of Hostile Propaganda: Both governments undertook to take all steps within their power to prevent hostile propaganda directed against each other and to encourage the dissemination of information that would promote friendly relations.

Step-by-Step Normalization: The agreement outlined a series of steps to progressively restore and normalize relations, including the resumption of communications (postal, telegraphic, sea, land, and air links), promotion of travel facilities, resumption of trade and cooperation in economic and other agreed fields, and promotion of exchanges in science and culture.

The Line of Control (LoC): A crucial provision of the Simla Agreement was the reiteration and formalization of the ceasefire line of December 17, 1971, as the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. Both sides agreed to respect this line without prejudice to their respective positions and to refrain from unilaterally altering it or using force to violate it.

Withdrawal of Forces: The agreement stipulated the withdrawal of Indian and Pakistani forces to their respective sides of the international border.

Who stands to be impacted?

The most immediate and significant impact will be on the bilateral relationship between India and Pakistan. The Simla Agreement, despite its limitations and the numerous crises that have punctuated the relationship since its signing, has served as the primary framework for managing disputes and maintaining a semblance of communication.

• The abrogation of a key peace treaty will undoubtedly deepen the already entrenched mistrust and animosity between the two nations. It signals a hardening of stances and a potential move away from peaceful, bilateral resolution of disputes.

• With the agreed-upon mechanisms for dialogue and peaceful resolution weakened, the risk of miscalculation and escalation, particularly along the volatile Line of Control, could increase significantly.

• India has consistently cited the Simla Agreement to resist third-party intervention in the Kashmir issue. Pakistan's suspension of the agreement could be interpreted as a move to potentially internationalize the dispute once again, a scenario India has long sought to avoid.

• While the LoC was a direct outcome of the 1971 ceasefire and formalized by the Simla Agreement, the suspension of the latter could raise questions about the sanctity of the agreed-upon boundary, although any unilateral alteration by either side would be fraught with severe consequences.