Rainfall over India is likely to remain subdued for over a week as the annual monsoon's progress has stalled after its earliest onset in 16 years, though it is likely to pick up again from June 11, two senior weather bureau officials said on Monday.
The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs.
Nearly half of India's farmland, which has no irrigation, depends on the annual June-September rains for crop growth.
Monsoon rainfall will be subdued in the next few days, but from June 11-12, the monsoon will strengthen and start covering the remaining parts of the country, said S. D. Sanap, scientist with the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) Pune office.
Monsoon onset over Kerala occurred on May 24 and quickly covered southern, northeastern and some parts of western India ahead of its usual schedule, but its progress has stalled for the past few days, according to an IMD chart that tracked the monsoon's progress.
A weather system is likely to develop in the Bay of Bengal around June 11 that will strengthen the monsoon and create favourable conditions for its progress in the northern parts of the country, said another weather department official.
Summer rains usually fall in Kerala around June 1 before spreading nationwide by mid-July, allowing farmers to plant crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane.
The early arrival of the monsoon brought cheer to farmers, though the recent and sudden stall in rainfall surprised them, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
"Farmers are holding off on planting soybean, cotton, and other summer crops until there's more rain. They're waiting for the soil to have enough moisture," the dealer said.
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