Congress gaining foothold in Gujarat, steadily increased vote share in two decades

While the BJP has recorded a net loss of 16 seats from 2012 when it had won 115 seats, Congress’s seat gain is largely due to the swing in the vast rural regions of Saurashtra.

Although the number of rural-urban constituencies vary from source to source, as per a Times of India report BJP won 55 of 73 urban seats—a strike rate of over 75 percent. But, the Congress bagged 62 of the 109 seats that are predominantly rural.

According to Congress spokesperson Manish Joshi, Congress failed in getting votes in urban regions while Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “communal polarisation” tactics also fetched support for the saffron party. “Our organisation is weak in urban areas. We will have to work on it,” said Joshi.

Margins and vote optimisation

Even with a decreased tally compared to 2012, BJP has increased its vote share in the state by 1.3 percentage points to 49.1 percent. It won by big margin in the urban areas but the margin was not helpful in reality with lack of optimisation of its vote share.

BJP won Vadodara City with a margin of more than 52,000 votes and also added over 12,000 votes this year. In Vadodara’s Savli, Surat’s Choryasi and Ahmedabad’s Asarwa BJP won with a whopping margin of over 40,000 votes; all these districts are dominantly urbanized and BJP’s mainstay.

The Congress meanwhile managed a number of narrow wins in the rural and semi-urban regions.

BJP won a swathe of seats  by more than 20,000 vote margin in  Dharampur, Rajkot South, Amraiwadi, Ankleshwar, Bardoli, Bharuch, Bhavnagar (East, West, and Rural), Sabarmati and so on.

On the other hand, Congress won several seats such as Anand, Junagadh, Dasada, Vav, Nandod, Morbi, Bapunagar, Bayad, Daskroi with an average margin of 6,000 votes. It even won over a dozen seats with an average of 1,000 votes in places like Chhota Udaipur, Morbi,, Chanasma, and Dangs,

While the BJP has conquered urban areas as it traditionally does, the Congress has also made inroads in the Ahmedabad district where its share has increased from two in 2012 to six seats now. The party also got two seats in Vadodara where it drew a blank last time.

Patidar factor

Although backing from Patidar leader Hardik Patel did not help Congress much in Patidar strongholds in North Gujarat such as Mehsana, Congress did gain some seats due to split in Patidar votes and support from OBC communities owing to its ally Alpesh Thakor. For example, Congress and its allies won six out of nine constituencies in Banaskantha district.

The Patidar factor also contributed, along with the major farmer distress, to the Saurashtra win for the grand old party. However Hardik’s call did not work for majority of patidar voters and in places like Surat, where the Patidar leader has campaigned extensively, BJP reigned in all seats.

There were reasons for people to believe Patidar votes could actually swing the election and bring Congress to power. The Patidar quota agitation, which started in 2015 July, influenced the outcome of local body elections that year under Chief Minister Anandiben Patel. BJP lost a number of District Panchayats and Taluka Panchayats to Congress.

A comparison of local body elections of 2010 and 2015 in Gujarat.

While BJP held sway in the 56 municipalities and six municipal corporations, its vote share fell from 47.8 percent to 44.7 percent and 51.7 percent to 50.1 percent respectively. On the other hand, the Congress improved its vote-share from 29.6 percent to 39.6 percent (Municipalities) and 33 percent to 41.12 percent (Municipal corporations).

However, the large gatherings at Hardik's rallies against BJP and in support of Congress did not translate into votes. According to political experts, while Congress could not garner much faith in the community aspiring to get reservation, Hardik belonging to a minor sub-caste of Kadwa Patels also worked against the Congress.

Other factors also helped keep BJP in power. For instance, in Surat, disgruntled traders went back to the BJP fold due to the Centre's hurried policy reforms to smooth out hurdles resulting from GST implementation. In Porbandar, troubled fishermen moved away from BJP to Mayawati's BSP by a significant number but the party won with a narrow margin of 1,855 votes.